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No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump
The Federalist ^ | June 24, 2016 | Emily Ekins

Posted on 06/27/2016 8:47:46 AM PDT by Maceman

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1 posted on 06/27/2016 8:47:46 AM PDT by Maceman
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To: Maceman

“For Trump supporters, this is a tempting narrative to believe. But this simply isn’t so. The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans, and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal. That obviously doesn’t mean Democrats always win, but it’s unwise to assume a pollster is biased because its sample included more Democrats than Republicans.”

There aren’t 12% more Dems than Reps.


2 posted on 06/27/2016 8:49:18 AM PDT by TakebackGOP
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To: Maceman
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump In the Biased Polls.
3 posted on 06/27/2016 8:51:47 AM PDT by Resettozero
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To: Maceman

If all the Democrats and Republicans who voted in 2012 vote in 2016, Hillary! will win. Trump wins if and only if he can get Republicans-who-stayed-home-in-2012, plus “independents” (read: old-fashioned Democrats) to the polls to vote for him. That is what the polls cannot predict, and at this point in the campaign, neither can we.


4 posted on 06/27/2016 8:51:49 AM PDT by chajin ("There is no other name under heaven given among people by which we must be saved." Acts 4:12)
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To: Maceman

I like the false narrative that Hillary is winning. Her people already are not excited about getting to the polls, this will insure a Trump landslide.


5 posted on 06/27/2016 8:51:51 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: TakebackGOP

There are more secret Trump supporters, but are fearful of being ill treated.


6 posted on 06/27/2016 8:51:59 AM PDT by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
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To: Maceman

Meaning that the US >is< becoming an insane asylum.


7 posted on 06/27/2016 8:52:26 AM PDT by SkyDancer ("They Say That Nobody's Perfect But Yet Here I Am")
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To: Maceman

I believe it. The power of Free Sh*t is strong.

At this point in 1980 I think Carter was up by 11.


8 posted on 06/27/2016 8:53:43 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: chajin

And if he gets new voters, such as the people in the primaries that gave him more votes than any Republican in history.


9 posted on 06/27/2016 8:53:53 AM PDT by TakebackGOP
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To: Maceman; Sidebar Moderator

Warning: Washington Post polls are junk surveys with major sampling bias issues

6-26-16 | Lowly sidebar mod

Posted on 6/26/2016, 3:12:05 PM by Sidebar Moderator

The Washington Post is actively trying to demoralize the Republican base to depress fundraising and recruitment and ultimately to suppress turnout in November by promoting their false narrative that Trump has no chance. Think about that before posting the same poll over and over from different sources. You know who you are.

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3443909/posts


10 posted on 06/27/2016 8:54:24 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (We will begin to read about the HCexit, Ryexit, MCexit, OBexit, GOPexit, NATOexit to go with Brexit!)
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To: SkyDancer
Meaning that the US >is< becoming an insane asylum.

More young, fighting-age inmates are coming in every day.
11 posted on 06/27/2016 8:54:42 AM PDT by Resettozero
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To: 1Old Pro

this is about the margin of fraud. outside of flyover country, the urban areas are 100% fraud controlled. Absentee ballots, early voting, “voting assistance”, and news blackouts are designed to imply only one candidate is running for office.


12 posted on 06/27/2016 8:55:05 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Maceman

“The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans, and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal.”

Looking for citation.......

Can’t find one, but lecture away, Mr blogger.


13 posted on 06/27/2016 8:55:19 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: Resettozero

Yep. Thing is that Democrats and liberals are turning the country over to them.


14 posted on 06/27/2016 8:55:33 AM PDT by SkyDancer ("They Say That Nobody's Perfect But Yet Here I Am")
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To: Maceman
With election polls, the point isn't how many Republicans or Democrats exist, it's how many of each vote.
15 posted on 06/27/2016 8:55:48 AM PDT by BfloGuy ( Even the opponents of Socialism are dominated by socialist ideas.)
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To: TakebackGOP

It’s dangerous to reweigh polls based on party identification. Reputable pollsters basically let D/R/I fall to where it falls. While I do not think the electorate will be D+12, it’s entirely possible that a D+6 or D+7 result is plausible. That’s where the electorate was when Obama was elected in 2008 and reelected in 2012.

Also keep in mind that polls are snapshots of the electorate. And these snapshots are generally registered voter polls, which generally favor the Democrats by a few points.

The data shows that Hillary! is up between 5-7 points right now. It’s way too early to be panicked about it, however. Not many pollsters have their LV screen tweaked yet.

Ideally, the electorate will shrink to D+1 or Even and Trump will win the election. The tipping point is in the D+2 or D+3 range.


16 posted on 06/27/2016 8:55:54 AM PDT by NYRepublican72 (Radical Islamic terrorist Omar Mateen is "Ready for Hillary!" Are you too?)
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To: Maceman; timestax

Thanks Timestax!

17 posted on 06/27/2016 8:56:00 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (We will begin to read about the HCexit, Ryexit, MCexit, OBexit, GOPexit, NATOexit to go with Brexit!)
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To: Maceman

I’m inclined to agree that at this point, Hillary probably has a legit 4-5 point lead, but I think polls showing a 10+ point lead are dubious.

That’s fine. This was never going to be easy and it was always going to be a long shot. If we’re going to lose, let’s go down guns blazing. Bombs away!


18 posted on 06/27/2016 8:56:12 AM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: Maceman

Don’t we know always to act like our guy (or gal) is down 20 pts? Work your butt off to see they’re elected! While I DO like Trump, it’ll be worth a lot of sweat to work to defeat Hillary! If she’s elected, I’m going to burrow in for 8 years.


19 posted on 06/27/2016 8:56:36 AM PDT by EDINVA
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To: Maceman

No there are not significantly more Democrats than Replicans out there.


20 posted on 06/27/2016 8:57:06 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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