Posted on 06/29/2016 1:13:56 PM PDT by Kaslin
All we have to do is look at historical voting levels to realize these are very fringe numbers.
They can say what they want about Trump, but the idea that he will get only 20 or simply less than 25% of the presidential vote is absurd. And when something is totally absurd, it isn't worth the trouble to post or read about.
This is pure fantasy.
Donald Trump is going to do just fine against Hillary, and the polls are revealing that. He's going to mop the floor with her.
This guy is sooooooooo overrated - back in 2008, Obama was feeding him his internal polls and that’s why he was so accurate. Can’t stand both of these twits.
Nate has a 5% chance of being right.
Can you give us a location for where I could find that Obama fed Silver data?
The guy totally missed in projections of NCAA and NBA tournaments. He’s got a great record for being wrong.
There are several wild cards that could also boost Trump. The first is terrorism. Don’t be surprised if the country is changed completely by horrific attacks or attack by election day. Also the scandals clouding Hillary that is a big if. There is also a thing called justice. The Clintons are evil and maybe they have gone to far and we will have cosmic justice.
and from tedstate:
I would say there is a 79% chance Nate is wrong.
Yeah, they sell nothing but propaganda these days.
Rest assured, Nate Silver’s statistical model has been vetted by climate scientists.
(Hillary is doomed!)
Nate also missed Brexit.
These predictions are "chances of winning", not "percentage of votes."
Nate Silver and others are looking at the polls that say Hillary is up 5% to 8% and are saying that Trump has a 20% chance of overcoming that deficit.
For the record, I don't think the standard prediction models apply this year, and the legit polls will start to shift in Trump's favor once people are able to compare and contrast them in the debates.
Secular Jews walking off the cliff(again) with statists. It’s the 1930’s all over again a seemingly intelligent, thoughtful and aware peoples is once again putting their collective behinds in their rear orifice. Holocaust .v2 on the way if the world continues this way. This time it could happen in a nano second by an Iranian warhead..No need for Wansee, train cars and gas chambers.
So how do we know the Hildabeast isn’t doing the same at this time?
You do raise a good point. Thanks for that angel on it.
That does make more sense.
Having said that, I acknowledge an error in my undestanding on that.
I still think these estimates right no are like trying to lay a foundation in the riverbed.
Good luck.
Trump is competitive at this point, and it only gets better from here IMO.
You have to remember that in 2008, Silver was helping Obama against Hillary and she’s not exactly a forgiving type of person. Also, he was VERY wrong about some primaries this year like:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-stunning-bernie-sanders-win-in-michigan-means/
1% chance this fake “genius” was wrong. He was wrong.
I guess today is my day to defend Nate Silver.
As Rush noted, Silver is not a pollster. He analyzes polls. That is a crucial difference. Garbage in, Garbage Out applies. And today’s polls, many that poll nearly twice as many Dems as Pubbies and huge percentage of Independents are simply Hillary Push Polls. Garbage Polls.
Those are the polls that Silver is using to draw his conclusions.
Be patient, the polls will improve because the pollsters need to keep their reputations alive so they will slowly but surely start to utilize reasonable models of the actual voting population. Plus Trump will improve in the polls just like he did in the GOP Primary. And, most importantly, Trump will win the turnout battle and even the Great Nate Silver will have to accommodate that fact.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.