Posted on 06/29/2016 1:13:56 PM PDT by Kaslin
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RUSH: If I've had one person send it to me I've had five people send me this idea that Nate Silver is out predicting that Trump doesn't have a chance to win the presidency. Have you seen this, Snerdley? (interruption) Well, yeah. Let me tell you something: Nate Silver used to be a god in the New York Times, and he's not a pollster. He's a renowned pollster analyst. Meaning he found algorithms and software programs and bots and all kinds of things to analyze all the data in all the polls.
And what he would do is issue percentage for the chances various candidates had to win, and he came to fame in 2012 assuring liberal Democrats all over the world, but particularly in this country, that Romney was going to lose. Whenever there was polling data showing Romney pulling ahead, Nate Silver would come out and say, "No, it's not true," and literally there would be a national sigh of relief. But then Silver started blowing it.
He left the New York Times, went over to ESPN, and has his own FiveThirtyEight blog. He's back now predicting Hillary Clinton has a 79% chance of winning the presidency, compared to Trump's 20%. Now, Silver still has a lot of acolytes out there. He still has a lot of true believers. And they're applauding and they're partying and they're ecstatic, but they are forgetting something crucial. Nate Silver has been wrong about Donald Trump predictions seven times since last June.
"1. June 16, 2015: Why Donald Trump Isn't A Real Candidate." Silver's website said Trump's not a real candidate because "Trump's high name recognition combined with a staggering -32 favorability made him the least-liked presidential candidate of all time," which meant, "'Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another Home Alone movie with Macaulay Culkin -- or playing in the NBA Finals -- than winning the Republican nomination...'" Silver blew it. "2. July 16, 2015: Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump 'Surge' Seriously."
So Trump's taking off, Nate Silver comes out with two reasons why everyone should not believe it; dead wrong again. "3. July 20, 2015: Donald Trump Is The World's Greatest Troll Silver finally weighed in with this article, where he described Trump as a 'troll' candidate, who was thriving simply by virtue of the tremendous attention he could receive by insulting everybody," but he was not going to go anywhere.
He had no chance to win the nomination.
"4. Aug. 6, 2015: Donald Trump's Six Stages of Doom." Obviously wrong. "He pegged Trump's odds of winning the nomination at 2%... 5. Aug. 11, 2015: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls, And Losing The Nomination. ... 'Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination,' Silver said. 'It's not even clear that he's trying to do so.'
"6. Nov. 23, 2015: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump's Polls." They don't mean anything; Trump has no chance. "7. Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan -- Silver was quick to pounce after Trump finished second to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses," saying this is as good as it gets. He's been wrong seven times predicting the fate and fortune of Donald Trump.
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All we have to do is look at historical voting levels to realize these are very fringe numbers.
They can say what they want about Trump, but the idea that he will get only 20 or simply less than 25% of the presidential vote is absurd. And when something is totally absurd, it isn't worth the trouble to post or read about.
This is pure fantasy.
Donald Trump is going to do just fine against Hillary, and the polls are revealing that. He's going to mop the floor with her.
This guy is sooooooooo overrated - back in 2008, Obama was feeding him his internal polls and that’s why he was so accurate. Can’t stand both of these twits.
Nate has a 5% chance of being right.
Can you give us a location for where I could find that Obama fed Silver data?
The guy totally missed in projections of NCAA and NBA tournaments. He’s got a great record for being wrong.
There are several wild cards that could also boost Trump. The first is terrorism. Don’t be surprised if the country is changed completely by horrific attacks or attack by election day. Also the scandals clouding Hillary that is a big if. There is also a thing called justice. The Clintons are evil and maybe they have gone to far and we will have cosmic justice.
and from tedstate:
I would say there is a 79% chance Nate is wrong.
Yeah, they sell nothing but propaganda these days.
Rest assured, Nate Silver’s statistical model has been vetted by climate scientists.
(Hillary is doomed!)
Nate also missed Brexit.
These predictions are "chances of winning", not "percentage of votes."
Nate Silver and others are looking at the polls that say Hillary is up 5% to 8% and are saying that Trump has a 20% chance of overcoming that deficit.
For the record, I don't think the standard prediction models apply this year, and the legit polls will start to shift in Trump's favor once people are able to compare and contrast them in the debates.
Secular Jews walking off the cliff(again) with statists. It’s the 1930’s all over again a seemingly intelligent, thoughtful and aware peoples is once again putting their collective behinds in their rear orifice. Holocaust .v2 on the way if the world continues this way. This time it could happen in a nano second by an Iranian warhead..No need for Wansee, train cars and gas chambers.
So how do we know the Hildabeast isn’t doing the same at this time?
You do raise a good point. Thanks for that angel on it.
That does make more sense.
Having said that, I acknowledge an error in my undestanding on that.
I still think these estimates right no are like trying to lay a foundation in the riverbed.
Good luck.
Trump is competitive at this point, and it only gets better from here IMO.
You have to remember that in 2008, Silver was helping Obama against Hillary and she’s not exactly a forgiving type of person. Also, he was VERY wrong about some primaries this year like:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-stunning-bernie-sanders-win-in-michigan-means/
1% chance this fake “genius” was wrong. He was wrong.
I guess today is my day to defend Nate Silver.
As Rush noted, Silver is not a pollster. He analyzes polls. That is a crucial difference. Garbage in, Garbage Out applies. And today’s polls, many that poll nearly twice as many Dems as Pubbies and huge percentage of Independents are simply Hillary Push Polls. Garbage Polls.
Those are the polls that Silver is using to draw his conclusions.
Be patient, the polls will improve because the pollsters need to keep their reputations alive so they will slowly but surely start to utilize reasonable models of the actual voting population. Plus Trump will improve in the polls just like he did in the GOP Primary. And, most importantly, Trump will win the turnout battle and even the Great Nate Silver will have to accommodate that fact.
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