[aumrl]

I wish I didn’t have to explain this.
You say Romney drew ‘moderate’ rallies during the general, which I was referring to.
I say the ones I attended were large.
That is why most observers were surprised by the result.
Hope this clears up any misconceptions you may have.

[AndyTheBear]

I mean "moderate" in the general being that Romney's biggest was about 30,000 in the home stretch of 2012.

I would call "big" the 100,000 Obama reached in the home stretch of 2008. The narrative around Obama the populist that would heal political and racial divides and right all wrongs was complete rubbish...but it got him elected handily with huge enthusiastic rallies.

I would say the swell that Romney got was more about the tea party wanting to end Obama's tenure than it was about excitement for Romney. Sure, there was some bit of enthusiasm for Romney himself as a result, but it was a tad manufactured for the greater good. Nobody really felt Romney was going to make America Great again...it was just hoped that maybe a rhino would be better than more of a socialist....

Big rallies do not automatically mean somebody is going to win. But it is one indicator that is useful if examined in the context of everything going on. The frequency as well as the size and the enthusiasm of the Trump rallies bode well.

[gogeo]

It's not just a question of the attendance at Romney's events.

Obama drew huge crowds wherever he went, larger than Romney.