Posted on 08/02/2016 7:42:11 PM PDT by Sawdring
Premeditated war between the United States and China is very unlikely, but the danger that a mishandled crisis could trigger hostilities cannot be ignored. Thus, while neither state wants war, both states' militaries have plans to fight one. As Chinese anti-access and area-denial (A2AD) capabilities improve, the United States can no longer be so certain that war would follow its plan and lead to decisive victory. This analysis illuminates various paths a war with China could take and their possible consequences.
Technological advances in the ability to target opposing forces are creating conditions of conventional counterforce, whereby each side has the means to strike and degrade the other's forces and, therefore, an incentive to do so promptly, if not first. This implies fierce early exchanges, with steep military losses on both sides, until one gains control. At present, Chinese losses would greatly exceed U.S. losses, and the gap would only grow as fighting persisted. But, by 2025, that gap could be much smaller. Even then, however, China could not be confident of gaining military advantage, which suggests the possibility of a prolonged and destructive, yet inconclusive, war. In that event, nonmilitary factors — economic costs, internal political effects, and international reactions — could become more important.
(Excerpt) Read more at rand.org ...
the United States can no longer be so certain that war would follow its plan
No plan survives contact.
Ping
A war, no matter the outcome, cannot force the world to buy Chinese products, and the commercial sea lanes would be cut immediately and indefinitely.
We’ve turned a blind eye to all of China’s evil practices, for the sake of money. All those principles that we said were worth defending and dying for during the Cold War with the Soviet Union, we stopped mentioning when it came to China.
We can thank the Clinton’s for helping to put China’s military capabilities on the map.
History should see them as traitors but they are running for a presidential third term. Crazy times we live in.
CGato
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China could make a creditable power play for much of East Asia.
IMO, they would not want to tangle with Russia, India, or Japan (because the US would likely jump in with Japan).
I think China would collapse internally quite quickly if they faced a serious opponent. Their navy is much stronger than it was — but not strong enough to defend their supply lines.
The US would not “invade” China. Everyone has seen “The Princess Bride”, so we all know to avoid a land war in Asia. No real “boots on the ground”. But a “standoff and chip away” war with Naval and Air assets precisely plays to our strengths. I see victory in Asia being more straightforward than victory in — let’s say — Afghanistan.
Our bread and Circus economy cannot support a small regional war in the Middle East LOL!
That’s not important!!
It’s not important thAT bill sold us out to them in the 90s.
Trump asked a woman in a joking way to take her baby out of the hall he was speaking in!!!!!
WHERE ARE YOUR PRIORITIES!!?? /SICKENING S
These people are idiots. Any war today between two super powers, all out war, would likely result in millions of civilian and military casualties in the first few hours because there would almost CERTAINLY be a nuclear exchange followed by a cease fire, both sides would lose, and the war would be over as quickly as it begins.
Otherwise no one wants to go to war, because of the nuclear deterrence of each nation. You start a conventional war with China they decide to nuke a few major cities, so you launch a few back. While both powers are using all channels to stop before someone launches more.
Not to mention the international community, allies, treatises, etc.
There is no longer conventional warfare between super powers. Nukes are why there hasn’t been a third world war, and no conventional wars between superpowers since WWII. The cost is too high to engage directly. So superpowers fight proxy wars wherever they can. We won’t go to war with another nuclear nation directly. Period. Unless they start it first. Which they won’t either.
I’m imagining the nationwide shortages of electronics for everything from Xboxes to business equipment that would result in all manner of chaos from riots over rare game consoles to hired robbers pinching spare parts for desperate companies to major chain stores having electronics aisles looking like Soviet bread stores. Not a pretty mental picture, my fellow Americans.
Very cogent reasoning, but this South China Sea business is pushing things to a new edge. China certainly seems intent on making its claim, and the opposition of the U.S. and Japan, and other non-Chinese interests is also firm. So it's a classic "who will blink" confrontation, such as we experienced at the height of the Cold War.
I will put on the swami’s Turban and gaze into my Crystal Ball and look into the future.
1. Before the new president takes power China will move on North Korea and take over.
2. Next she will march south into Vietnam and seize that nation quickly. They may well use gas and nukes to secure a two week victory.
3. Next they will use their new navy to seize Indonesia and Malaya. When we start to send ships and planes to Japan....
4 The Chinese will nuke Hawaiian bases. and the west Coast of the USA
5. Next nukes will blow up the Panama Canal.
6. Iran and other nations will join China as well as Cambodia and Thailand. Japan will stay neutral as well as Europe, England Canada and Mexico. Only India may come to America’s aid. It will be over in 18 months, cost 12 million lives. The USA will make a bad peace treaty. China will get Guam, Hawaii ( a restored monarchy— under China) Alaska will go to Canada. India will have to disband her navy so too America. Lets hope I am wrong.
Here is a viable strategy for a war with China:
General Chi’s Lebensraum speech (Google it) pointed to biowarfare. I researched a little looking for indicators of it being a forgery or being authentic, and my judgment is “authentic”, so I’m expecting a mysterious epidemic when we are goaded into shooting back.
If the xboxes and iPhones were to dry up the millennials would be in the streets begging for the conflict to end.
Preposterous.
I want what you’re smoking...
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