Posted on 08/02/2016 7:42:11 PM PDT by Sawdring
Premeditated war between the United States and China is very unlikely, but the danger that a mishandled crisis could trigger hostilities cannot be ignored. Thus, while neither state wants war, both states' militaries have plans to fight one. As Chinese anti-access and area-denial (A2AD) capabilities improve, the United States can no longer be so certain that war would follow its plan and lead to decisive victory. This analysis illuminates various paths a war with China could take and their possible consequences.
Technological advances in the ability to target opposing forces are creating conditions of conventional counterforce, whereby each side has the means to strike and degrade the other's forces and, therefore, an incentive to do so promptly, if not first. This implies fierce early exchanges, with steep military losses on both sides, until one gains control. At present, Chinese losses would greatly exceed U.S. losses, and the gap would only grow as fighting persisted. But, by 2025, that gap could be much smaller. Even then, however, China could not be confident of gaining military advantage, which suggests the possibility of a prolonged and destructive, yet inconclusive, war. In that event, nonmilitary factors — economic costs, internal political effects, and international reactions — could become more important.
(Excerpt) Read more at rand.org ...
Exactly
https://warisboring.com/step-by-step-here-s-how-to-defeat-china-in-war-1fd16b4d0a54#.mh9yft9yv
Japan returned a loaner 331 kg of weapons grade plutonium to the US—the remaining 48 tons of Pu is for ‘fuel’ use. Obama has made overtures toward taking it off their hands as they supposedly have no use for it. Japan having a handling basis for reprocessing the material, has since announced an imminent restart 19 of 42 reactors.
In other news, Japan has substantial space launch capability for satellite and deep space exploration missions...
We’ll fight it by proxy, if there even is a confrontation. Guaranteed.
It’s just too risky for China to start a full out war with America and her allies. They know it, we know it. The risk of even one or two nukes on both sides in an exchange before a cease-fire is called is too risky, and all too likely in a direct confrontation. Even in China leaders don’t get to the top of the food chain by being homicidal mass murdering maniacs.
The people with nukes are mostly sane, and want their countries to live. The real problem is going to happen when a rogue/terrorist state gets some. Like Iran making some. Or ISIS taking a NATO or US base with some nukes.
I’m fine with sane mostly civilized and developed countries having them. Because they aren’t going to push the button on a whim. But the Iranians will sell them to terrorists, ISIS will use them without a seconds hesitation.
The short story was that most any naval engagements with the Soviets would likely go nuclear within the first hour or so.
I hope the ChiComs have more restraint, but if they see their ass getting kicked.................
If my region (British Columbia) is any sort of guide, the real Chinese threat is not military, it is socio-economic. They plan to take over gradually through colonizing, combined with increased immigration. This may not be much of a factor in the U.S. yet, but I can think of a few places where a similar thing may be underway. However, British Columbia appears to be a pilot project on a larger scale. And from their point of view, it’s working. Ten years ago, in my neighbourhood, there was no sign of recent mainland Chinese influence at all (around the region, a past generation Chinese ethnic population but that’s quite a different thing). Now, buildings are coming down to be replaced by huge condo towers, almost all the purchasers are either recent Chinese arrivals or offshore investors.
This is of course a destination city and province, but frankly I don’t think our charms are the main attraction here, more likely it’s the geography of a logical bridgehead into North America. If this works as planned, watch for it to spread step by step.
From China’s point of view, North America is like a second China that is largely devoid of people (our population is one quarter of theirs on a similar land base, if one excludes the 90% of Canada that is mostly wilderness).
So the military talk is interesting, but make no mistake, the main threat is socio-economic, cultural imperialism. And the Chinese have no shortage of two things — people, and self-confidence.
This sort of program is easier to push forward if they own the local political leadership, and in this province, it’s pretty clear that they do.
You are off the mark on this a bit Lord Cardigan. The Chinese of course have an enormous military. However it’s quality and capability are very suspect. Remember that they got into a tussle with Vietnam a number of years ago and got whipped. Chinas best options are to use the Pacific as their back door and defend. Their front door and an opportunity for their huge infantry is against Russia through thinly populated Siberia.
As to the Panama Canal, they control both ends and can deny use by blowing up a couple of locks in the extreme, or just denying passage to those they don’t like as part of a trade war. Just a few observations to consider.
I would suggest reading the book. A conflict with China would be a lot different than war with the Soviet Union.
Thanks for the link.
I haven’t read a Clancy book in 20 years.
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