I think it is well above that number. Nobody knows how many guns I do or don’t have.
“I think it is well above that number. Nobody knows how many guns I do or don’t have.”
However, that’s not the point. If you take the number of guns produced for the civilian market annually, add to that the number imported, subtract the number exported, subtract maybe 1% for guns that are somehow destroyed (and rust can do that, not just literally destroying it in an instant), you come up with how much the civilian stock increased in a given year. Do this for all years since 1968 (when the 4473 came into existence), and you know how many guns were legally added in those intervening 46 years. Now, add to that an educated guess of how many existed at that time, minus a small percentage for destruction, and you have the total stock.
Well, except for war trophies brought home by our troops (LOTS in WW1 and WW2, not so much since then), illegal imports, manufacturing here that isn’t reported (like 80% receivers) and thefts from the police and armed forces. All of those combined probably don’t add up to more than about 10 million - not nothing, but not an earth-shattering number.
None of that says exactly who owns what, of course. Someone gets too old to use their guns, or dies, and family inherits it without any record (in most states). Ditto on selling a gun to a friend, or just some guy or gal at a gun show or flea market.
400 million is about right - and it goes up by about 12-14 million each year. I hope that it is more, but in any event it is a LOT, and any government hoping to seize them would be in for an “interesting” experience.