Romney had about a million more votes than McCain.
Obama had about 3.5 million votes less than he got in 2008.
I never believed 4 or 5 million Repubs stayed home.
I will always wonder where the 3.5 million Obama voters went and did they even really exist in 2008 ?
Oh, I know where they went: kids. My college students ALL were on the Zero train in 08, but it was much, much different in 2012. I think they just didn’t vote in 2012.
They manufactured 400,000 votes in each of Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. Mr. 538 knew. Other pollsters didn’t.
In Ohio, Obama campaign even had extra ground game the last 3 weeks because even with 400,000 extra/minus from Romney, it was still looking close. In 2008, McCain didn’t campaign seriously, because the bipartisans wanted what came to be called Obamacare, so the US could go down the same path as Europe and Canada.
At least 1.5 million American stayed home, mostly evangelicals put off by Romney’s Mormon faith. Anyone who wants to run the numbers will get similar answers.
In an honest count, Hillary would hover at 38-40%, Johnson at 5-7%, Stein 2-4%, Trump 51-53%%. IOW, a landslide.