In general, folks who have never taken a statistics course should refrain from making pronouncements on polls. If you don’t know how to calculate MOE, you’re like a dog with a can opener. You recognize the tool, but there’s zero chance of operating it successfully.
That is a rather presumptuous statement. I have taken a Senior level Statistical Analysis course and have a minor in math.
As a fellow Freeper your comment is not constructive.
It’s shocking that he’s not winning.
I think we’re actually in agreement. The common ground is that the method almost guarantees wide swings. Those wide swings are not from changes in opinion, but from the technique. There’s your manipulation. Last week, everybody on Fox was citing a poll where Trump got 1% black support. None of them read the small print on the screen that showed a 9.5% MOE.
With your solid credentials, maybe you could explain to the unwashed what the MOE is for a sample size of 50. As a bonus, you could then show them that with such a small sample, that a 4% and a 14% result are not inconsistent with zero change in opinion. Many have no clue and are almost as uninformed as the media.