I think/hope you are correct.
I followed the polls for Brexit...not as closely as for the US presidential election, for sure. But I do remember distinctly that some of the final numbers (I forget which outfits of course) showed leave within the MOE, like two points down. I remember distinctly being very pleased with that, as I felt like leave had a lot of momentum for the future and that the EU was still going to be injured.
Then leave won by 4...which was a huge surprise.
So I think Farage saying that they were down by ten is a bit of an exaggeration for dramatic effect, and no doubt there were some polls which were saying that day of. I think the polling was closer....but nothing was anywhere near a 4 point leave victory at least not that I can remember.
Which is a long winded of saying, that I think you and Farage are spot on.
Trump is within 4 in the RCP average for a 4 person race. That is awesome improvement over the last few weeks. If he can begin to move the needle a little bit state by state....then all of a sudden, this starts to look a whole lot like Brexit...and the timing couldn’t be more perfect!
Agree. Further, when he starts hitting her about the corruption, and pointing things out like how poor Haitians were thrown under the bus while the Clintons and their foundation raked in money, there will be movement of the usual democrat demographics away from her and to Trump. It doesn't have to be a lot. Even a few percentage points can make a huge overall difference.
This is like a title fight in which biased ringside announcers are seeing a different fight, and despite their best efforts to make it seem like their fighter is winning, their fighter (Hillary) has taken many shots, is becoming increasingly vulnerable in the middle rounds, and unlikely to do well in the later rounds.
No Farage was right, on election day pollster came out that Remain are up with 10%. Election day afternoon, Farage told reporters in tube that he is going home , he is disappointed. That time it was 10% with initial exit poll was 10%. When results start coming in , he was shocked.