If we lose Va., we must make it up in Pa., Mi, Wisc.Minn, part of NH.
Trump doesn’t need MI, WI, or certainly MN (although the more the merrier if he can get them). VA looks increasingly unlikely, but that’s not a necessity either. I think Trump’s most likely paths to the presidency at the moment if he keeps Romney’s states are:
-FL, OH, and PA
-FL, OH, NV, IA, and NH
The latter will only get him to a tie but he would most likely win the vote in the Republican controlled House. He could win outright with that last scenario if he also adds the 1 electoral vote from Maine’s Congressional District 2. PA and NH will be the most challenging states out of those two scenarios, but this poll shows he’s still very much in contention in PA and last month even Nate Silver was saying that Trump would win NH. Trump’s lost support in NH since then, but it shouldn’t be that hard to get them to come back to the fold.
(If he could win MI, it would make up for PA or OH if he loses either of those, but I think a win in PA and OH would be more likely. MI+WI or MI+two of the small swing states (NV, IA, or NH) would make up for a FL loss if he gets PA and OH, but I think he’s much more likely to win FL than MI.)