Lib college F&M internals here. All 29 pages of it. A snippet below - is this the make up of PA?
http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/976089416682518756-f-m-poll-release-august-2016-1.pdf
“RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a
Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or as
something else?
39% Republican
49% Democrat
10% Independent
3% Something else “
- - - - -
PA does have about a D+10 but the splits are wrong. In 2012 it was 45-35-20. So right there they under sampled Indies and I highly doubt PA will go D+10 for Hillary.
With those internals, I would think the Hildebeast should be up by at least double digits.
Don’t know. I think Gallup has it D+3-4 but not sure
It looks like yes.
45% identify as Republican (23 strong, 13, 9 lean)
7% identify as Independent (1% more don’t know)
47% identify as Democrat (28 strong, 11, 8 lean)
46% voted Democrat (18-22-6)
40% voted Republican (7-20-13)
10% about equal
5% did not vote/don’t know
Clearly President is a more salient office than say, state Attorney General, but a 6% margin for Democrats appears to be about right.
There’s a large spike toward “Liberal” in July 2016.
Trump does lead among the undecideds.