Posted on 09/10/2016 2:18:42 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too
I intend to produce this weekly, just as I did in 2012. I may add the Senate races later.
-PJ
Let me know if you want on or off the list.
Comments are welcome and much appreciated.
-PJ
I would like to be on your ping list. Clearly you take this seriously, and I’m curious to see how it all pans out. Thanks.
Well, that was depressing. :(
On, please
I would love to see your summaries as you have them plus any adjustments for polls that over/under sample based on gender, race and political affiliation. That would be very interesting so we can see the level of adjustments these pollsters make to generate their desired outcome.
Interesting. All the polls you specifically named are moving in Trump’s direction.
Please add me to your ping list!
I don't have the resources to look at in that detail, and I can't really compete with sources like fivethirtyeight.com. Nate Silver looks at polling "house effects," as well as historical quality, turnout predictions, and an extra special sauce.
I am taking the polls as they are, and assuming that the polling companies have already taken into account various turnout assumptions. I hope that by averaging different polls together, that the bias can be smoothed out somewhat.
The best I can do is show the changes over time to the polls as they are released, and leave it the reader to assume the rest. If state polls lag too much behind national polls, or they don't align with people's on-the-ground experiences, then let that show up as comments on websites and calls to radio shows.
-PJ
FL, GA & NC should all be under Trump.
See it as an 8% growth from last week.
-PJ
That's what I'm hoping to see more of.
The national polls showing Trump closing or leading are of no consequence, since it's the state's Electoral College votes that matter. If the national vote moves, I expect the states to move, also.
-PJ
Show me the state polls, and I'll add them to the model.
-PJ
Oh you’ll see plenty more movement as the pollsters update their “likely voter” profile.
Heck, many are still using the 2012 turnout.
Which ones ? They’re all over the map. You can safely put GA and NC based solely on the 2012 results alone. Trump will carry every Willard state as a bedrock.
Bless you. We need this and I am so glad you’re up to the task.
A couple things you might consider that might make your job easier. (But they might make it harder as well.)
1. You could consider putting your tables into Excel and using Snipping Tool to save as a jpg file. Post the image at TinyPic.com and then stick it in your post.
2. If you do the above you could color code the changes Week over Week. Pink for a favorable movement in our direction. Light Blue for the Dems. Red and Dark Blue for a 2 Category Jump.
Using the Excel/jpg scheme would also facilitate posting your very valuable Weekly Chart to Twitter and Facebook and the like and including them in email to the WP, LAT, Fox News and your real friends.
Just a thought. In any case I am glad to be on your Ping List and very happy to see you continuing your project. And your methodology looks first rate.
Ignore all media
Get Out The Vote
Which is why the model shows it as a toss-up right now.
You can safely put GA and NC based solely on the 2012 results alone.
I will, as soon as the polls show it. This isn't a model of what I want, it's a model of what the data says. If the data is corrupt, then people will call the pollsters out on it sooner or later.
-PJ
I don’t see 2016 turnout in any way mirroring 2012. There will be an inherent Hillary bias of 3-5% until late October.
Please add me to your list, thanks!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.