Posted on 09/12/2016 6:30:49 AM PDT by NKP_Vet
The Latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll shows that Hillary maintains a five point lead over her Republican rival Donald Trump, but the demographic mix of the poll is raising alarms that the results may be cooked in Clinton’s favor.
The campaign of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton celebrated Sunday morning’s news that a major national poll showed her campaign rebuilding a five point lead against the truculent tycoon and reality television star Donald Trump after a week of attacking the Republican nominee for alleged infatuation with Vladimir Putin, Russia and the Kremlin following his appearance on Larry King’s show that is broadcasted on RT among several other international outlets.
If we take the 93% certain to vote for Republicans and 80% certain to vote for Democrats and guesstimate that means exactly 93% of the 26% of the electorate that are registered Republicans will vote, and exactly 80% of the 29% who are Democrats, this would mean about 4% more Republicans than Democrats would vote (which would translate very roughly to about a 1% to 1.5% advantage in total popular vote--depending on ratio of Republicans and Democrats to others voting).
These are rough assumptions, but the picture is very good for Trump if one considers he seems to consistently lead among independents. But I have also seen numbers suggesting he might not do as well among Republicans as Hillary does among Democrats...although I think the difference is not as strong as the difference in independents.
My guess is that if the election were somehow today, Trump would win. But I suspect on November 8 he will win by a wider margin than he would today. My suspicion (which I have had for months) is that Hillary would poll mostly ahead until the debates when she would collapse and Trump would win in a landslide. As far as I can tell my suspicions have played out pretty well so far...
The odds of anyone of us trusting the Washington Post or ABC News is ZERO. I mean George Stephanopoulos RAN THE CLINTON WAR ROOM FOR BILL CLINTON. It’s beyond being ‘in the tank’ for Clinton - Stephanopoulos IS THE TANK....
This poll is all over mid-day Fox News, the anti-Trump hours.
This poll also had a 4.5% MOE even with the oversampling. IOW, the 5 point lead was barely outside the MOE.
It also says that when a phone was answered it immediately asked to speak to the youngest member of the household. Presumably that means youngest voting aged person, but it doesn’t really say that. Maybe they’re using the youngest member to report the behavior of the other members of the household.
It all is so bizarre.
Well, I have gotten two odd phone calls from unknown area codes that were identified as corporate callers that, as soon as they heard my voice (obviously not a kid) they hung up.
Do you think they’d question teens about the opinions of the adults in the household?
USC poll vastly oversamples non-whites, women.
Real poll now is at +3 for Trump, in line with UPI.
I saw one poll in which the blacks polled, 24% of them had graduate degrees. Census Bureau says only 10.8% of Americans have graduate degrees.
I think party turnout will be GOP 85% to, max, 90%; Dem will be 87% or below.
BTW, new Utah poll out. Safe for Trump 39-24.
MOE doesn’t work that way.
Trump's result could be 4.5% higher, and Clinton's result could be 4.5% lower. In that case, Trump would be ahead.
-PJ
It is anything that falls within the range of 41.5 - 50.5 for Clinton and 36.5 - 45.5 for Trump. One of those numbers would be 46 for Clinton and 45.5 for Trump.
-PJ
Excellent!
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