“For example, for the other aggregator sites such as NYT, the distribution of expected outcomes appears to be normally distributed.”
FWIW: I agree with you. I’m dyslexic and screw the math up unless I go really slowly but I understand the concepts involved and you are correct.
Basically what you are saying is that because Trump is leading in Ohio and Indiana he will pull Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois toward his column because mid westerners share similar cultural biases.
This is sort of why I think NJ may be in play if Pennsylvania is. If NY goes for Trump expect it to be closer than demodogs would like in Connecticut and Massachusetts. I think Trump has a chance in NY State. He is only down by 2 in New Jersey in the last poll I saw that covered that state.
Bingo. That is what I have been saying. If Trump gets NJ and NY it is over before bedtime on election day. Hell, it may be over before dinner.