Posted on 09/22/2016 7:44:45 AM PDT by mandaladon
The calculus is that more black riots against police or ginned up racism in general will unite the black vote for Hillary and turn out all of the Leftist mush brained voters, particularly the Bernie supporters. Not everybody agrees with that analysis and argue that the backlash against the riots will actually turn out more Trump voters than will gained by the Democrats with this violence.
Hi HokieMom, just registered. Wish there was a location in Lee District... :-)
Obama 55%
McCain 39%
Someone else 4%
Don’t recall/Refused 3%
Considering they meant Romney on that one, therein lies the validity problem. Obama won Virginia only by 3.9% in 2012.
Back in 2008 and 2012, neighborhoods were full of Obama yard signs. This year.. even in predominantly black Portsmouth, there’s not a single Hillary sign to be seen in any of the neighborhoods or thoroughfares in which I’ve driven.
Contrary to juiced polls and slanted pundit remarks, Virginia is very much in play. If Trump can replicate Bob McDonnell’s economics-above-all message (remember “Bob’s for Jobs?) to every single audience, he can win here.
Answer:
1) Burgeoning population of government dependents (employees, minorities, immigrants) in NoVA and greater Richmond.
2) Weak/absent leadership by the state Republican Party.
Not as steep as it might appear. Roanoke drew from (with leaners) a 49-D, 39-R, 12-I sample. Virginia's party ID balance is somewhere at about D+2.
Great! Do you get emails from your Lee District Chairman?
There is going to be lots and lots of GOP election officers and poll watchers this time around in the Democrat precincts.
M<y conclusion is as such. No one is really going to throw their vote away by voting third party. At most a total of 5%, but likely less than 3% will vote for third Party candidates. That means that people are too afraid to tell pollsters who they will be voting for due to fear of being labeled bigots or racist. Clinton is below 50% in many dark blue states.
She is highly disliked by all aspects of the electorate, they simply hate Republicans more so. Often due to branding by MSM and Democrat operatives, but I digress.
The undecideds break 80%-20% Trump. He wins all the swing states as well as a couple purple states.
I certainly hope Trump can pull this off!
This poll certainly is curious, and your mentioning the yard signs shows that the climate is nothing like 2012 with Obama, so why are they using the 2012 demographics? The dynamics are entirely different than 2012.
<< With leaners, the sampling was 49 D, 39 R, 12 I. >>
I think,in the end, the independents will vote Trump or stay home. I know the Congressional Republicans are hoping the anti-Trumpers will at least show up and vote for them.
Hampton University poll has had the race tied for the past two months. Hampton is an HBCU, so they can hardly be part of the vast right-wing conspiracy. And no less than the WaPo has cited the Hampton poll as one of the most accurate in Virginia—at least until they showed Trump pulling even with HRC.
Most recent survey was completed in August; it is based on registered voters vice likely voters:
I don't. Who is it?
What Virginia should do is go proportional voting by Congressional District with the leftovers going to Statewide Winner. That would clear out the NOVA voters and put them in their own pool. The Virginia GOP has the votes to do this.
Hampton University poll has had the race tied for the past two months. Hampton is an HBCU, so they can hardly be part of the vast right-wing conspiracy. And no less than the WaPo has cited the Hampton poll as one of the most accurate in Virginia—at least until they showed Trump pulling even with HRC.
Most recent survey was completed in August; it is based on registered voters vice likely voters:
That’s how I see it. Fence-sitters will break for Trump with more of this nonsense. It might depress Trump’s black support as the community does what it does and coalesces, both out of identity and in many cases fear - imagine being a black Trump supporter in this environment. However, every other group - especially whites - will gravitate towards law and order and a ‘change’ candidate. Who the hell wants this as normal besides the braindead or vile?
One more bug eye bobblehead face plant and Trump can call it a day. :-)
Looks like they built in about 9 points for Hillary to get her 7 ahead...
The outer counties need to hold back all vote counts until Richmond, Fairfax county and Norfolk reports all 100 per cent...the cheats won’t know how many votes to manufacture!
Well, the poll samples say D+7. Where do you get +12. I get +8.5.
I dunno. We said the same thing about Romney when he was this far behind Obama four years ago.
I’m not discounting any poll.
I DO know most every poll is trending Trump. NOT like four years ago at all.
Anyway, Trump doesn’t need Virginia to win. He is in play in a lot more states.
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