I disagree with those that say that Virginia should be written off and is permanently blue. Yes, Northern Virginia is going to vote their interests and will come out strong for Hillary. The thing is, there are a lot of people in the western, southwestern, and southside part of the state that are going to come out for Trump in much higher numbers than for McCain and Romney.
The other factor to consider is African-American turnout. I lived in the City of Richmond in 2008 and 2012, and the turnout with Obama on the ballot was astronomical. Hillary is not going to get that kind of turnout, nor is she going to get the same percentage of that turnout this time. In addition, millenials are mostly going to stay home.
Virginia is winnable.
You got a good take on things.
What Virginia should do is go proportional voting by Congressional District with the leftovers going to Statewide Winner. That would clear out the NOVA voters and put them in their own pool. The Virginia GOP has the votes to do this.
I Never said VA is permanently blue.. what I said was in THIS election, where the people in NOVA are going to be hyper motivated to not rock the boat for pocket book reasons, they are about as motivated as you can get to show up to vote.... regardless of whether they hate hillary or not... they will show up to vote for their Pocketbooks/wallets.
Trump almost certainly can be perceived as a threat to the cushy ride, since he is an unknown... whereas Hillary is bought and sold by the old system and no matter what she does or doesn’t do if elected she isn’t any real threat to the system of graft and corruption and fraud and waste.
So, if in a state like VA, in an election like this, where NOVA is probably the most motivated people you are going to find to vote for Hillary, and she can’t hold it, then she isn’t fundamentally safe ANYWHERE.
In other election cycles, NOVA may still not want to rock the boat, but someone with R leanings would be more likely to vote R than they may be this election in those areas... because other elections the R would not be perceived as a direct threat to their wallet.
I am saying nothing about the PERMANENT status of VA, just about this election. If Hillary doesn’t hold VA.... .I don’t think she is going to hold much at all...