This poll is truly curious.
Weighting was done to match the demographic groups’ representation in the 2012 Virginia exit poll.
In other words, the actual weighting of the poll was based on Obama’s campaign in 2012.
Next, in the data section, we discover that fully 51% of the respondents had a college degree (BA) or higher. Of those fully 23% had an advanced degree beyond a BA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_educational_attainment
The truth is, though, that only 34% of Virginians have at least a BA and that only 14% have a graduate degree.
One wonders exactly who was calling where when making phone calls?
Question 8a calls into question the competence of those administering the poll: The question about Romney reported results for McCain. That’s pretty shoddy work.
8. a. [IF YES] Do you recall if you voted for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney for President in 2012 or did you vote for someone else?
Obama 55%
McCain 39%
Someone else 4%
Don’t recall/Refused 3%
Obama 55%
McCain 39%
Someone else 4%
Don’t recall/Refused 3%
Considering they meant Romney on that one, therein lies the validity problem. Obama won Virginia only by 3.9% in 2012.
Back in 2008 and 2012, neighborhoods were full of Obama yard signs. This year.. even in predominantly black Portsmouth, there’s not a single Hillary sign to be seen in any of the neighborhoods or thoroughfares in which I’ve driven.
Contrary to juiced polls and slanted pundit remarks, Virginia is very much in play. If Trump can replicate Bob McDonnell’s economics-above-all message (remember “Bob’s for Jobs?) to every single audience, he can win here.