I never said D+4 was “normal”. The question was what would the outcome be if the poll was adjusted to D+4. Maybe “normalize” was the wrong word to use or too confusing. Anyway, DEMs are more likely to vote in presidential elections than the midterms. So, if it was D+6 in 2012, D+4 for 2012 is not going to be too far off, especially in light of possible massive voter fraud.
“D+4 for 2012 is not going to be too far off”
In 2004 when W got reelected the turnout was R+4 and W wasn’t even that popular.
Obama had unprecedented high turnout among minorities and millenials that no other dem has been able to replicate. That’s why they don’t have majorities in the house or the senate.
And Romney had turnout issues among evangelicals because of his religion.