Posted on 09/30/2016 7:26:31 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here is the latest on Florida Absentee Ballot requests (REPs lead in this category by 79,000 in 2012)
09/30/16: REPs - 1016k, DEMs - 873k, lead of 143,000 for REPs
09/29/16: REPs - 997k, DEMs - 857k, lead of 140,000 for REPs
09/28/16: REPs - 978k, DEMs - 838k, lead of 140,000 for REPs
09/27/16: REPs - 933k, DEMs - 801k, lead of 132,000 for REPs
And NO dimpled chads to count this year either! :-)
This doesn’t seem to be a very good predictor of outcome.
It’s significant that Republican requests are way up this year.
obama only narrowly won Florida in 2012....so....it would seem that any uptick in GOP performance at any stage of the game is a good indicator
No but it is a pretty good indication of voter intensity in FLA. I heard, but do not know if it is correct, this is the 1st time the GOP has ever lead the Dems in this area.
Hillary has NOWHERE near the support or enthusiasm of Obama in 12.. and Obama had nowhere near the support or enthusiasm in 12 he had in 08.
D turnout and voting will be down at least an average of 10-15% from 12 levels, probably a good bit more.
May not be a predictor of outcome but can you say, honestly, that it is bad sign? If it were the other way around do you not think it would be leading MSNBC’s headline?
“REPs lead in this category by 79,000 in 2012)”
For all of 2012 or as of sep 30? How did the trends go for rest of the election?
HUH?
In 2012 Minoin lost FL by 74,000.
These numbers show FL absentees are now at 132,000, or 53,000 MORE than in 2012 . . . and we aren’t even through September yet.
Did you take Dem math classes?
Dumb question: Since you can vote for anyone in a general election, wouldn’t the best way to hide voter fraud be to enroll the phantom voters as Republicans?
that certainly seems to be the case.
And Trump is obviously generating more enthusiasm than romney.
(By the way....you have made many insightful posts over the years. Keep up the good work. As a fan of the Federalist papers, I can’t forget your screen name. And incidentally, if you haven’t checked out the musical Hamilton, you should. The section on the Federalist Papers is magnificent, and will likely invoke misty eyes and a choke in your throat. The Aaron Burr character sings/raps/laments/recounts the production of the 3 authors of the Federalist Papers...and when he gets to describing Hamilton’s contribution, it is just awesome...it will give you chills...you just have to check it out).
I can’t find the # of absentees in FL who voted in 2012.
In 2014, 73% voted. In 2016 PRIMARY, 55% voted.
I think we will exceed the 73%. If only 73%, though, as of today that would add 102,000 new GOP votes that didn’t exist in 2012 when Minion lost by 74,000.
In OH, for ex., in 2012, 95% of absentees voted. In fact, we found that absentee voters were MUCH more likely to vote down ticket GOP as well, because they took time to research candidates.
“Since you can vote for anyone in a general election, wouldn’t the best way to hide voter fraud be to enroll the phantom voters as Republicans?”
With all due respect, what the hell isn’t a sign of voter fraud on FR?
I think we make up more examples of it than Democrats actually ever use.
Nope.
2008 will not be repeated in 2016.
Heck even GHW Bush didn’t win as many states in 88 as Reagan won in 84. Reagan won so many that Bush had states to spare.
Hillary doesn’t have a square to spare.
One-third of the votes in FL are cast before election day. The Dems have historically held a huge advantage over the Reps in early voting. This is a very good sign for Trump.
At least she can restake after she loses...which is certainly not what she wants but might be better for her. And yeah she belongs in jail, but I just don't think she will go there...so she ought be thankful...but then I don't think she has a history of doing what she ought. Sad.
“This doesn’t seem to be a very good predictor of outcome.”
Why not?
““REPs lead in this category by 79,000 in 2012)”
For all of 2012 or as of sep 30? How did the trends go for rest of the election?”
It was for all of 2012 absentee ballots. These are not actual early voting at the polls which I believe starts on October 24th in Florida. So dems’ had a combined pre-election day lead in 2012 of 20,000 if my math is correct.
Here is a much better and detailed explantion of that data in the following post :
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3474945/posts
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