Me,too! I'm afraid Carl and Joe are going to be disappointed on November 9! These polls based on the 2012 turnout model are not worth the paper they are printed on. In 2012, there was NO enthusiasm for Romney and still quite a bit for Obama, especially among African Americans. In 2016, the situation is reversed. No one is really enthusiastic about Hillary and the Trump voters, many of whom were so disaffected that they have not voted recently and thus are not being polled), are HIGHLY motivated.
Hope you are right! My 51st birthday is November 9. Would be a nice present!!!