Large pop states like CA, NY tend to skew national polls D. Exclude those, and exclude the obviously red deep south/north Plains and the obviously blue NE far NW, and your “battleground areas” run from +2-3 R to about +6-7 D, but the Ds in those states are more flexible-—working class, blue collar, farmers, etc. Not hard core welfare recipients.
Gallup said in 2012 that exits showed we were 50/50. I don’t think that’s right, certainly not on a national level, but in MOST battleground states D+1 or 2 is about right.
Right....and this goes to the point that if you shift about 250K votes to Romney in key states, he actually wins...notwithstanding the 4% difference nationally.
Did the state by state turnout R/D percentages in 2012 comport with primary turnout numbers? If so....using the same methodology...then we can assume greater Trump turnout in the general, b/c of his enthusiasm and record-setting turnout in the primary. (Right?)