Analyze your local polls.
What you need to know is the Democrat, Republican and Independent registration in your state. That is publicly available information.
Then you need to find the polls data and see if it lines up with the state registration.
Most polls have been heavily over-sampling Democrats.
Adjust as needed... :-)
There ARE indeed ways to un-skew or re-skew polls.
Almost all polls, nowadays, weight their samples by demographics. In many of them, they impose a 2012 turnout model (i.e., the demographics of the prior election) onto their sample.
In truth, turnout is big uncertainty from one to another election. We know that Trump has the enthusiasm. He specifically appeals to people who haven’t voted in the past. The other side is specifically attempting to depress turnout by saying the election is over. Yet, many of the polls show the Democrats to have a double digit lead in the electorate, when 6 or 7 points has been the recent norm, and when Trump advantage in enthusiasm can shift party affiliation in the Republican’s favor.
Bottom line the polls can easily be biased by 2 or 3 points, and perhaps by even more. If Trump is down by 2 or 3 points in the polls on the day before the election, I’ll feel pretty good about winning. If he’s down by 5 or 6, I’m still thinking he has a chance. If he’s tied or ahead, I starting the party, because I have already early-voted.