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Florida Absentee Ballot update, 10/21/2016
10/21/2016 | self

Posted on 10/21/2016 5:25:20 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 32.1% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.

10/21/16: REPs - 416,778, DEMs - 399,434 lead of 17,344 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%

10/20/16: REPs - 369,467, DEMs - 356,635 lead of 12,832 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.2%

10/19/16: REPs - 316,400, DEMs - 305,626 lead of 10,774 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.3%

10/18/16: REPs - 265,657, DEMs - 259,824 lead of 5,833 for REPs, 41.5% to 40.6%

10/17/16: REPs - 210,629, DEMs - 210,595 lead of 34 for REPs, 41.07% to 41.06%

10/16/16: REPs - 198,674, DEMs - 193,610 lead of 5,064 for REPs, 41.5% to 40.5%

10/15/16: REPs - 169,862, DEMs - 163,598 lead of 6,264 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.3%

10/14/16: REPs - 130,758, DEMs - 124,773 lead of 5,985 for REPs, 42.0% to 40.1%

For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):

10/21/16: REPs - 28,710, DEMs - 33,635, lead of 4,925 for DEMs

10/20/16: REPs - 26,515, DEMs - 31,311, lead of 4,796 for DEMs

10/19/16: REPs - 23,905, DEMs - 28,411, lead of 4,506 for DEMs

10/18/16: REPs - 18,585, DEMs - 22,338, lead of 3,753 for DEMs

10/17/16: REPs - 16,642, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,431 for DEMs

10/16/16: REPs - 16,642, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,431 for DEMs

10/15/16: REPs - 16,643, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,430 for DEMs

10/14/16: REPs - 12,937, DEMs - 15,764, lead of 2,827 for DEMs


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
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To: usafa92

I think hurticane also slowed things down


21 posted on 10/21/2016 6:48:41 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Chewbarkah

A) 79,000 more R absentee ballots returned.

The balance of absentee ballots (not D or R) are independents and other parties.


22 posted on 10/21/2016 6:49:09 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

You keep doing this every day and leaving me confused with your analysis. Could you clarify. When I look at the numbers, it seems that Republicans are performing about the same as in 2012 statewide, and that the Dems are UNDERperforming in Hillsborough. Am I wrong?


23 posted on 10/21/2016 9:30:01 AM PDT by MrChips (Ad sapientiam pertinet aeternarum rerum cognitio intellectualis - St. Augustine)
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To: MrChips

Yes, with a caveat.

Right now, Rs lead Ds in RETURNED absentee ballots by 1.8%. I think that can grow to 3% by election date. That would match the 2012 lead for Rs. In that sense, “similar” to 2012 - for absentee voting.

For Hillsorough, DEMs led by 20,000 in 2012 for combined Absentee ballots and in-person early voting. So far in 2016 they are leading by just under 5000. But no in-person voting yet. That starts next week. I assume their lead will grow with in-person voting. Question is whether their lead is over / under 20,000. Under 20,000 is good for us and over 20,000 is good for DEMs. It is too early to draw conclusions from Hillsborough until we see in-person early voting numbers.

Conclusion: Rs looking similar to 2012 in absentee voting. Too early to tell yet on Hillsborough. Hillsborough county is the typical “swing” county in Florida.


24 posted on 10/21/2016 9:39:39 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Thanks for the updates!


25 posted on 10/21/2016 9:43:07 AM PDT by Sidebar Moderator
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To: LS

I know some Floridians who had major disruption in their lives b/c of the hurricane. Turned out to be a non-event, but, yes, the point being....early voting stuff hasn’t been on their minds last few weeks.


26 posted on 10/21/2016 9:50:41 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: ConservativeDude

Have one friend who really buttoned up and it missed him. But he was without power for days and had to clear fallen trees from his property


27 posted on 10/21/2016 10:25:39 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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