Thanks. It just seems so odd that the 3 polls seem to stubbornly stick to what they’re sticking to when there are all these other polls showing different results.
If I was in charge of these polls showing Trump ahead I would be desperately checking and re-checking my results to ensure I was doing it right. This action would seem to drive the polls to greater credibility and reliability.
After all, I would think we are talking about real money lost here if those polls turn out to be wrong, not mention profession credibility.
Their credibility is always going to be based on their last poll before the election. They can always claim the current polls were right, but the public’s mood shifted right before the election.
There’s also the conspiracy theory angle where most of the polls sponsored by MSM media outlets may be trying to show a Clinton win. Because the MSM both hates Trump more than McCain and Romney and believes Clinton is more at risk of losing and needs more help than Obama in 2012.
I don’t even know what all the polls said 2 weeks before the vote in 2012. It’s hard to go back and look at more than that final poll before the election from each outfit.
It may not be worth spending time looking at the polls so much right now anyway, because of the fact things can change rapidly. I’m always concerned about the Dems turning up those “people who don’t pay attention to politics” at the last minute and scaring them into voting against the mean, evil Republican.
Besides those 3 polls, PPD's poll has closely mirrored the LA Times/Rasmussen poll as well (and now IBD) throughout this cycle so that's basically 4 polls showing the same thing.