http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ibd-tipp-15832
Right now, IBD/Tipp is 42-40 Trump, with 5% undecided. With a LOT more going 3rd party this year.
I guess the question to ponder is why the 2012 undecided went so heavily to Obama and how can Trump get them instead? Normally I'd expect the undecided to be the most ignorant voters and perhaps to be easily swayed by the media, but this year they might actually be informed and just genuinely confused and torn. GOP-leaners because of Trump's unusual nature as a candidate and DEM-leaners because of Hillary's untrustworthiness.
This year the 3rd party question is really a new one. We have almost 11% voting 3rd party vs. roughly 2% in the 2012 poll! I think that might be the most underreported story in this election. Can a candidate sway those people not to "waste their vote?" Are these 3rd party voters just throwing a tantrum before they agree to do what "mommy and daddy" say or are they unpersuadable?
It’s hard to say about the 3rd party vote. Who can tell? I’m thinking of at least 55 maybe as much as 10% but relay I don’t know.
Aside from all the other factors, Romney apparently really had a problem with his turnout machinery, his “ORCA” system. Maybe that cost him 1 or 2% maybe a state or two, probably still would have lost.
I worry about the Trump turnout machine although maybe he doesn’t need one.