2 - this poll is reweighting their sample of R33/D33/I34 to R29/D37/I34 (7% R-D rounded) to get their Trump +1.8%. If you use their original mix, Trump is up 7% - T45.7%, C38.6%,J7.4%,S-3%, Other/DK: 5.4%. So they are modeling turnout to be slightly worse than 2012 for Rs vs Ds.
3 - The 3rd party votes and undecided #s are shrinking slowly each day. Let's hope if that trend continues they break Trump 2:1
4 - Trump is winning among independents 44-31% and is down only 2% on the West, Midwest and the NE.
“2 - this poll is reweighting their sample of R33/D33/I34 to R29/D37/I34 (7% R-D rounded) to get their Trump +1.8%. If you use their original mix, Trump is up 7% - T45.7%, C38.6%,J7.4%,S-3%, Other/DK: 5.4%. So they are modeling turnout to be slightly worse than 2012 for Rs vs Ds.”
I think the original weighting is more correct.
Putting Trump up 7 would give him about 52% to 55% of the vote
There are a LOT more going 3rd party compared to last time. Last time was less than 2% in the election and I think the polling had it around 2% as well. This poll is showing 11% for Johnson and Stein. That is a highly underreported shift in the electorate. The question is should we consider them lost voters or should we consider them as persuadable as the undecideds?
I’m confident that more voters will want Trump.
But I admit to being concerned that Hillary thinks this is in the bag because she controls all aspects of counting the votes.
Trump did a smart thing by getting people aware of voter fraud. But in the end, will the media convince people that evidence of 110% turnout of registered voters is merely “sour grapes” by the guy who lost?
I agree with your adjustments, but it is impossible to believe Johnson will get 7.4%. The last not R, non D to hit that number was John Anderson.
I think J is looking at 3 tops.
Trump ran a hard hitting ad last night during the Cubs game in western VA. Must have cost big bucks - around the 4th inning.
It was an indictment of Clinton over Benghazi. Pat Smith from the RNC Convention saying Clinton lied to the Benghazi families about the video, then Clinton denied it later.
Drove across VA from Roanoke to D.C. last week through Charlottesville. Saw dozens of large Trump signs, but only a couple of small Clinton ones. But northern VA will be a hard nut to crack. That’s why it surprised me that Trump would spend the big bucks here (MLB playoff game) if it was totally out of reach.
Hillary has to stay out of sight because can’t afford another public face plant with the ground this late in the game.
Within the last week we have been in CT, NY, NJ, DE, and MD. These are blue states last time I checked. We saw two HRC signs and one or two bumper stickers. There have been many (hundred or so ) Trump signs. We sat down with a self defining Liberal Democrat all my life who is very vocal about voting for Trump. He sees the same things and asks his friends who are still voting for Hillary if they are drinking the cool aid! At the table of eleven only four are voting Hillary and the rest Trump. All of us are from deep blue. Near 2:1.
Up two points nationwide among likely voters is good, and up among independents by thirteen points is excellent. However, Trump still trails by 0% to 100% among fictional voters, dead voters, out of state voters bused from polling place to polling place, and illegal alien voters. We need to get every Trump voter to the polls on Election Day to overcome the fraud planned by America’s domestic enemies in the Democrat party. It’s not over until it’s over, and we cannot afford to get complacent.
I sure hope this is right. It’s one of two or three that have him up....the rest have the beast waaayyyy up
They know the machines are rigged and ready to go.
This faux victory creation by the MSM will be Hitlery’s final days of celebration. Things will go down hill from here very fast as the pollsters need to stop cooking the books for Hitlery unless they want to walk down the same suicide path as the MSM.
Did you see Trump’s huge audience in Cleveland last evening? Right Side is the only one to show you the crowds. I bet those crowds keep getting bigger and bigger as we near Nov. 8. His venues better be in colosseums from here on out. People are scrambling to jump on the Trump Train. All aboard!!
National polls is one arena and state polls where the election will be won or lost
is another. Not sure which states that will be but I bet the campaigns are watching the
ones they feel are the deciders. JMO
The talking heads of the Demoncrap Barfy on TV are getting more and more shrill and strident. Soon they will go off their rockers completely.Today they were shreiking that Trump was a fascist , when in fact its the Clinton campaign which has conducted itself as fascists.
(Clinton’s socialism is indeed fascist, here is the analysis: http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/barack_obama_the_quintessentia_1.html )
Trump is gaining and they can’t do a thing to stop him on the stump. They are getting shriller and shriller.Soon they will be saying if Trump is elected they are going to jump off of high buildings. I say they should go for it.
this poll is reweighting their sample of R33/D33/I34 to R29/D37/I34 (7% R-D rounded) to get their Trump +1.8%. If you use their original mix, Trump is up 7% - T45.7%...
That reweighing is an interesting little factoid. MSM doesn’t want to show a Trump breakout in the polling as it would ruin their current narrative.
The Hillary campaign is NOT acting like she has won. They are not expanding the battleground, but instead are concentrating on Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, North Carolina, etc., as if it were a razor-thin race.
Johnson will never get 7%. Look for a lot of that vote to break for Trump.
She campaigns as if no one wants to see or hear her.
Go to Raleigh News and Observer and see article “Trump gets blue ribbon at State Fair”.