Early In-Person Voting
Obama: 145470/298637 = 48.7%
Romney: 105,948/298637 = 35.5%
48.7% - 35.5% = 13.2%
So on October 27, 2012, it was D+13 in Florida early in-person voting
The final 2012 Florida vote was D+1 (50.2% - 49.3% = 0.9%)
2016 Florida elections:
Early In-Person Voting: (Assuming all Republicans vote for Trump and all Democrats vote for Clinton)
Clinton: 133041/291449 = 45.6%
Trump: 109034/291449 = 37.4%
So on October 25, 2016, it was D+8 in Florida early in-person voting
If my analysis turns out to be true (I’m not counting the Independent registrations), then it is possible that the final 2016 Florida vote will be R+4 (12 point swing in favor of the Republicans from the early in-person vote when approximately 290,000 early in-person votes have been cast to the final Florida results).
Thank you for calculating that. I may have misspoke the other evening when I said “share”. So this other way of looking at the differences is probably more standard. With the fresh results in this afternoon, I think they are even better than they gain you calculated this morning!