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Trump can win this thing
1 posted on 10/26/2016 8:53:12 AM PDT by grayhog
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To: grayhog

Any state Hillary isn’t up by at least 10+, Trump will win.

And Hillary has leads like that in very few of them - not enough to matter.


32 posted on 10/26/2016 9:27:11 AM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
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To: grayhog

This poll UNDERCOUNTS whites. If you use proper race mix, Trump is +2.


36 posted on 10/26/2016 9:42:50 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: grayhog
they also polled 14% African American. Pennsylvania is 10% according to census.

The pollsters are trying account for exceptional turn out in some portions of Philly.

37 posted on 10/26/2016 9:43:31 AM PDT by USNBandit (Sarcasm engaged at all times)
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To: grayhog

Given the number of TV and radio ads in the Philly market, Mrs. Clinton is clearly worried about PA. It all depends on turnout at this point and if Trump can attract some of the Black vote.


45 posted on 10/26/2016 9:56:49 AM PDT by Antoninus ("The Western world has lost its civil courage, both as a whole and separately." -Solzhenitsyn)
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To: grayhog
NO ONE would ever run a non-campaign for President like Hillary has...no one!.....

Hillary Clinton is a no show candidate to the nation and a no show supporters at the rallies she attempts to have!!


47 posted on 10/26/2016 9:57:37 AM PDT by caww
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To: grayhog

It’s all about turnout. Whoever motivates a bigger percentage of supporters to actually show up and vote will win.


49 posted on 10/26/2016 9:59:07 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Big government is attractive to those who think that THEY will be in control of it.)
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To: All

55 posted on 10/26/2016 10:19:56 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: grayhog

‘if all you non Philly and Pittsburgh people show up, Trump should win PA.’

My gut tells me they will!


56 posted on 10/26/2016 10:20:04 AM PDT by Leep (Last Days of Hillary)
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To: grayhog

How good are Remington Polls? They have Trump up in OH, NC, and NV.

I saw liberals on Twitter saying these polls are nonsense and b*tching about how they lower Hillary’s RCP leads.


57 posted on 10/26/2016 10:34:40 AM PDT by SweetPatriot84
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To: grayhog

14% African American. Pennsylvania is 10% according to census

Now we know what the co-conspirators consider the fraud benchmark. Effectively, 140% of that demographic are going to vote for Hillary in Phila. If we can cut that down to 110% we win. (roughly).


60 posted on 10/26/2016 11:13:13 AM PDT by wiley (John 16:33: "In the world you have tribulation, but take courage; I have overcome the world.")
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To: grayhog

If you drill down into the demographic details, Trump has 29% of the black vote (Obama had 93% in PA 2012), and 30% of Hispanic (Obama had 80%).

These are **WTF** type numbers. If sampling was distributed by population OR if these black/Hispanic ratios are in the ballpark of the actual results, Trump wins PA. Combine both of these together, you have a polling error of 10% (like in the Primary PA vote where Trump overperformed polling by 10%).


64 posted on 10/26/2016 2:32:05 PM PDT by tommymindtrick
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