“Donald Trump: 42% Hillary Clinton: 45% Gary Johnson: 5% Someone else: 1% Undecided: 7%”
The large undecided number is the key here. The undecideds always break for the challenger, and I think everyone will agree that Trump is indeed the challenger.
Assuming traditional break down of 2-1 that 7% is about 4.6% trump 2.3% Hillary which is basically 46.6 to 47.3.. HOwever I fully expect Trump to beg better than 2-1 out of the undecided, and I do believe he has a monster vote here that is not being captured in the polling.
Just a few more weeks to go.