The internals have Trump getting 29% of the black vote. If that is the case she is toast.
If this is the same poll I looked at, Hillary’s toast.. which I have believed all along, in PA.
She’s only up 2 in Pittsburgh (a region that gave Obama 100k votes in 12)... Shes down 9 in Erie, region Obama won both times, and She’s behind in Harrisburg, again, an area Obama won twice.
Her numbers out out of philly in this poll at 56% for that region (I am assuming these are by region) is not going to be high enough to remotely give her enough of a lead to overwhelm the rest of the state.
R’s have put ~ 2.7M votes in the box the last 3 elections and that was with an unpopular war president and 2 dogs at the top of the ticket... D’s have put 3M, 3.3M and 3M in the box the last 3 cycles...
Hillary is NOWHERE near OBama 12 levels of support, or even Kerry 2004 (unpopular war turnout) levels... I suspect she’s going to be closer to Gore’s 2000 numbers of about 2.5/6 M votes... and Trump is going to absolutely CRUSH the history 2.7M ish votes.. I fully expect him to have 3M at least in the box on election day.
Trump has by far got the most support and enthusiasm of any R I have seen in the 30 years of living in PA, and that includes the 88 BUSH campaign which Bush won. I just don’t see how he doesn’t put 3M+ in the box, and I really see no way Hillary can get close to that.
Time will tell if I am just a doddering old fool or not.. but I really see no math that gets Hillary PA.
Close to the 26 i estimate.
Unreal. I think it will be over 15% though, and, yes, she is toast.