“I am on for a wager, a wager I would be happy to lose. Last election, I had a similar wager but the FReeper never paid up. $100 it is. “
I’m not going to make that bet :-) ... far too much risk and I kind of agree with you.
However, based on your experience, if NoVA is a bit more depressed this time around (for a POTUS race) and the SW part of the state comes out in record numbers, does Trump have a chance, or is NoVA that far gone?
The only reason I ask is that the VA Governor race was ridiculously close ... that’s the *only* reason I think Trump has a shot there. Would *yuge* turnout swing things in his direction :-).
Trump’s making a smart move campaigning here in PA ... he has a legit, real shot at flipping this state. Much like NoVA flipped in 2004, the Western half of PA started drifting to the right after 2008. While Pittsburgh is still a liberal cesspool, the suburbs are nothing like that city. The numbers that have flipped *can* offset Philadelphia as many people have moved from the city and turnout for Hillary is more than likely going to be less than previous years.
We will soon see! :-)
I have seen the Dem NoVA GOTV operation up close and personal. There is no way the Dem vote will be depressed there. Early voting allows them to marshal the vote and even commit voter fraud. The Dems are obsessive, vicious, well-funded, and organized in NoVA.
In 2012 we were able to increase the GOP vote by almost 100,000 compared to 2008. It was a massive GOTV effort. The Dems still won the state by 150,000 and increased their number by 25,000. Non-Hispanic whites, the power base of the GOP, are dying off. The Dems are increasing their numbers thru immigration and minority birthrates. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under are minorities as defined by the USG. Each cohort that turns 18 annually is more minority and more Dem.
One third of the vote is located in NoVA. In 2012 Obama amassed a margin of 224,000 votes in just Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria (city), Prince William, and Loudoun counties. Obama won by 149,000 statewide. Then you toss in predominantly black cities like Hampton (28,000 margin for Obama), Newport News (24,000 for Obama), Norfolk (40,000 for Obama), and Richmond (55,000 for Obama). These are huge numbers to overcome.
The only hope is a depressed black vote (they make up 20% of the population) or Trump gets a surprising number of black votes. Blacks don't like the Clintons. And a much larger turnout from the rural areas.
The only reason I ask is that the VA Governor race was ridiculously close ... that’s the *only* reason I think Trump has a shot there. Would *yuge* turnout swing things in his direction :-).
We have had several close races in off years. McAuliffe barely beat Cuccinelli and Warner almost lost to Gillespie. In low turnout elections, the GOP has the advantage. During a Presidential year, the Dem turnout/fraud machine goes into overdrive.
I agree with you on PA. Trump has a better shot there than in VA. The demographics are a little better and Trump, unlike previous Reps, has more appeal among white, blue collar voters. PA has also suffered far more than VA when it comes to the loss of manufacturing jobs. VA is propped up by huge federal expenditures. Lots of federal employees throughout the state. I lived inside the Beltway in McLean. It shouldn't come as a surprise that seven out of the ten richest counties in America ring DC. We lived in a very affluent bubble.
Trump should concentrate his resources in the remaining days where he truly has a shot. PA and MI seem like good targets outside the needed Ohio, FL, and NC.