Graph at link indicates that probability of Trump win is outside 95-percent confidence interval if election were held today.
I don’t really understand this graph, which shows Trump ahead of Hillary at a majority of time points since the middle of July, three and a half months ago.
This is obviously at odds with what we’ve been told by the MSM during that time interval.
The difference between the LA Times poll and all the others methodologically is that the others count only whole votes for candidates and some will add in leaners while the LAT poll allows respondents to rate their commitment on a 0-100 scale. Other polls that measure commitment separately if at all consistently show Trump voters are more committed. It has an argument if news at the last minute moves weak votes which it is trying to anticipate because it always seems to happen as surprises. Could be way off if there were no surprises after the last polls. But if that proves more accurate this time, everyone will be doing it that way in 2020.
“Graph at link indicates that probability of Trump win is outside 95-percent confidence interval if election were held today.”
To win the electoral college he needs a margin of 3% plus in the popular vote - which is looking increasingly likely. I actually think he’ll break 5% the way things are going! :-)
“This is obviously at odds with what we’ve been told by the MSM during that time interval.”
This is a tracking poll, which is harder to fudge than the one-off polls. Watch for serious cognitive dissonance among the MSM types over the next few days... LOL!
Trump/Pence 2016!