I think Nate Silver’s #1 agenda for tomorrow Monday regarding the presidential race is to get it right on all or almost all of the 51 contests that make up this race. I think we need to remember that anything between 5-95% forecasts is not a “done deal” and that 0-4% or 96-100% are the predictor values to call “done deal”. Saying that Trump has 52% odds on winning Florida is that Hillary’s odds are about 48/52 or 92% as likely as Trump’s. That’s pretty close to being a coin toss.
Nice summary.
Right now Nate Silver shows Clinton leading on 273 and Trump leading on 265. What is really going to decide the race for Trump is going to depend on:
1. Turnout of the GOP base - this is what will cement things for FL, NC, and across the map.
2. Midwest Push - this can make a difference in winning PA, MI, MN, and WI; along with keeping OH/IA for Trump - on this Hillary has her head in the sand on what NAFTA/GATT and now ObamaCare have devastated the Midwest corridor
3. Colorado & New Hampshire - each with their own unique scenarios - watch turnout especially closely here
4. Mormons in Nevada, Arizona, CO, NM - this is huge for Trump; Silver gives McMullin a 12.4% chance of getting Utah but in reality its now about 2.0% and going down fast in favor of Trump; as the initial kneejerk reaction by Mormons on the Billy Bush tape has definitely turned strongly in favor of Trump thanks to Wikileaks and Hillary herself. The Mormons are almost all voting for Trump (with noses plugged) and they will be at the polls in droves in NV, Colorado, AZ, and NM where it will have some impact. A few weeks back that would’ve been unthinkable, especially considering how the Deseret News, for the first time in 80 years making any statement regarding Presidential candidates, came out against Trump. Keep in mind that the Deseret News is owned by the Mormon church and is considered the “word of God” by Mormons generally.