Trump will do a lot better if the turnout assumption is wrong.
He’ll overperform relative to the last poll on Monday.
Hillary should get 42% max.
Hillary certainly seems stuck in the low 40’s. Without a Perot type third party candidate, no one wins an election in the low 40’s. This is the first year of this poll. They’ll be famous if Trump wins because they are one of the few polls that have been predicting that. If he loses, they are toast. Better to come up a little short of the final number than over.
Hillary lost 25 percent of the 2012 vote Obama got in the small New Hampshire towns earlier tonight.
Trump gained 5 percent over Romney.
That would put Hillary down around 41-42 nationally if it held up and Trump around 48-49.