Along with the tape, I think Comey’s closure of the second emails investigation in Hillary’s favor just 9 days after opening it hurt Trump, too.
Having cleared her a second time should have galvanized Clinton voters (”See? She’s innocent, dambit! Vote!”) and depressed the Trump vote (”Cleared again. The fix really is in! Why bother?”). But Hillary insists it’s the other way around—which I don’t believe.
I don’t think the closing of it hurt anything... The re opening certainly forced the press to finally start talking about emails and wikileaks, something they largely had ignored.... Whether it had any impact of changing votes, not sure, but it certainly helped psychologically to help reinvigorate existing Trump supporters.
The bus tape, CLEARLY put the brakes on Trumps momentum... without that, Trump was on his way to 350+/- EC vote win IMHO.