I feel bad for Nate Silver.
After giving Trump a 0.8% chance of winning the combination of PA, MI and WI and getting screamed at by Hillary people by being too biased against her....now he says Trump didn’t cheat.
He is about to feel the full wrath of the loony left—for real this time!
Silver gets a bad rap mainly because his predictions are based on data and don’t hew to the party line of either side. When polling data is not accurate, neither will Silver’s predictions be. Contrary to what some on here think, he uses a consistent model for his forecasts and does not change that model to get any particular result. The output of that model is what he reports as his forecast.
In this election he gets an even more undeserved bad rap for supposedly not getting it right. In reality, his model is probabalistic. He did not say Clinton would win; he said she had about a 70% chance of winning. If you were forced to bet on the outcome based on an analysis of poll data, he said you should have bet on Clinton. Based on available poll data that was indeed true. You’d have lost your bet, but it was still the right bet. Given the available information, Trump was an underdog. If you read his forecasts and articles more deeply, he did pretty consistently state that he thought NV and CO likely would go blue and that Trump’s best chance was to win states like PA, MI and WI, as these were the states where he had the best chance of outperforming the polls.