You are right and the way they are getting that number is pure sleight of hand. They are assuming that if they maintain the mandates and the pre-existing condition provisions, but not the individual mandate and penalties, then the premiums will be so high that millions of healthy people will simply opt out of buying health insurance. This is true, but they are referring to it as "losing their health care". Not exactly an honest description.
The "refundable tax credits" are a complete sham also. Obamacare gave subsidies directly to the insurers. Ryan-care does this kabuki dance whereby the patient gets a refundable tax credit, even if he didn't pay any taxes, and the payment goes directly to the healthcare provider. In the end it's exactly the same thing.
What is it you don’t understand about 60 votes.
No, don’t ladle up bullshit about having Pence ignore the Parliamentarian. You won’t get even 10 Senators to vote to kill the filibuster, which is what that is. You can’t declare every single bill to be Reconciliation. That’s silly and has already been dismissed.
So again, what is it you don’t understand about 60 votes.
And before you swagger forth with “just let Obamacare die and that will fix everything”, understand how budgets work. It’s In The Budget. Funding is on autopilot. You want to extract it? 60 votes. You want to kill all funding to be sure to kill that item? You won’t find 5 votes support for that.
So what is it you don’t get about 60 votes?
Politics is the art of the possible. What they are pursuing is what is possible. You have a chance to nudge it and improve it. Just be sure you go through the Parliamentarian.