I disagree, at least concerning the Paris Agreement.
Trump hired a pro-Agreement Secretary of State, a pro-Agreement Secretary of Energy, a pro-Agreement West Wing adviser (Jared Kushner), and a Chief of Staff who claims to be “neutral” about the Agreement.
In my opinion, Trump rejected the Agreement because he knew millions of his Conservative supporters would walk away in political disgust if he accepted it.
In my opinion, Trump will actually allow some of the provisions in the Paris Agreement to become policy, or to become regulations, simply by not opposing the behind the scene actions of the federal bureaucracy.
I suspect you are right. We will be led to believe we have a victory and end up with what we peons usually end up with.