Posted on 06/30/2017 12:19:48 PM PDT by Kaslin
The Democrats are lusting for the House takeover. In some weird way, they see their 0-4 record in special elections as an indicator that they’ll retake the lower chamber. Democrats say they’re over performing in these elections. Democrats say this is a good sign. Everyone else says they’re still losers, even CNN.
Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) from the People’s Republic of Illinois said that she feels confident that Democrats will pick up 25 seats. Well, from the concrete fortress of urban, progressive America, that may be a possibility—just as this cohort thought that Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide. Everyone else, even The New York Times, is not so sure.
MSNBC’s Morning Joe tossed a wet blanket on the notion of a Democratic wave, noting the difficulties with candidate recruitment—no solid standout candidates—and the lack of a farm system to find those candidates. Nate Cohn at The New York Times noted that Democratic turnout for the GA-06 special election was the highest in a decade, but added that a) the Democratic path to the majority runs through red districts and Jon Ossoff’s defeat in Georgia showed the level of difficulty on that front; and b) even with the high Democratic turnout, the electorate could mirror that of 2016 which was favorable to Trump. In all, even with President Trump’s less than stellar approval rating, which usually is a good indicator for how midterm elections turn out for whichever party is occupying the White House, the GOP could retain the majority.
We’re not fighting an unpopular war that was growing increasingly out of control and corruption scandals haven’t hit the GOP leadership. Also, the Democrats were much more exposed heading into 2010 than Republicans. Also, for Democrats to win districts that trend Republican, having Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) as the face of the party is a recipe for disaster. The House Minority Leader proved to be a contributing factor to Ossoff’s defeat to Republican Karen Handel in the most expensive House race in history. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), who challenged Pelosi for the leadership position, conceded that she is more toxic than Trump in some parts of the country, and that the Democratic Party brand is just terrible right now. All of this isn’t necessarily the making for headwinds into these red districts. Now, Third Way, a left of center think tank, released a study showing that even if the Democrats sweep the suburbs, they’ll still fall short (via WaPo) [emphasis mine]:
The opposition party needs to win 24 seats to take control of the House in 2018. Understandably, operatives and handicappers have focused on the 23 districts that Republicans hold, which voted for Hillary Clinton last year. But some of the incumbents are very popular, with brands that are distinct from Trump’s, and they are unlikely to lose no matter how bad the headwinds become.
In other words, it’s inconceivable that Democrats run the table in those 23 districts. Even if they did, they’d still be one short. And Democrats must defend 12 seats in districts that Trump carried in 2016.
Third Way did a deep dive to try to understand what the 2018 playing field will look like. The center-left think tank focused on 65 “Majority Makers,” the battlegrounds where a majority would most likely be won.
[…]
They divided the swing districts into four categories: Thriving Suburban Communities, Left Behind Areas, Diverse/Fast-Growing Regions, and Non-Conformist Districts.
[…]
The numbers underscore how different even the 23 GOP-held Clinton districts are demographically. Many are suburban and overwhelmingly white. Others are rural and heavily Latino. Within the broad categories, there are stark differences on income, educational attainment and employment rates. More than half of adults in New Jersey’s 7th District, for example, graduated from college. Only 17 percent in California’s 10th District did.
“The most important takeaway is that there is no one kind of voter or district that can deliver the House for Democrats in 2018,” said Lanae Erickson Hatalsky, the vice president for social policy and politics at Third Way. “There’s been a lot of focus on suburban districts. There’s no doubt that those are important, but there are not enough of them to win the House.”
Hatalsky, who co-authored the report with Ryan Pougiales, emphasized that Democrats still would not win the House even if they could get every single 2016 Clinton voter who backed a Republican House candidate to turn out again in 2018 and cross over.
“You can’t get to a House majority without winning over Trump voters,” she said. “There are some people who definitely want to believe that they can because they still don’t know how to deal with Trump voters and are intimidated by the idea of appealing to them.”
Well, that certainly is a splash of cold water on those Democratic wave hopes. As of now, looks like low tide for the Left.
(D)stroyed...................
The Democrats know they’re going to lose the 2018 election in Congress and in the state houses, too.
But by predicting huge victories their plan is to claim that their ‘victories’ were stolen from them and that any Republican office holders are therefore illegitimate.
You watch.
COLE PORTER
It’s De-lovely
The night is young, the skies are clear
And if you want to go walkin’, dear
It’s delightful, it’s delicious, it’s de-lovely
I understand the reason why
You’re sentimental, ‘cause so am I
It’s delightful, it’s delicious, it’s de-lovely
You can tell at a glance what a swell night this is
for romance
You can hear, dear Mother Nature murmuring low “Let
yourself go”
So please be sweet, my chickadee
And when I kiss ya, just say to me
“It’s delightful, it’s delicious, it’s delectable,
it’s delirious,
It’s dilemma, it’s de limit, it’s deluxe, it’s
de-lovely”
I feel a sudden urge to sing the kind of ditty that
invokes the Spring
So, control your desire to curse while I crucify the
verse
This verse I’ve started seems to me the “Tin
Pan-tithesis” of melody
So to spare you all the pain, I’ll skip the darn thing
and sing the refrain
Time marches on, and soon it’s plain
You’ve won my heart and I’ve lost my brain.
It’s delightful, it’s delicious, it’s de-lovely.
Life seems to sweet that we decide
It’s in the bag to get unified.
It’s delightful, it’s delicious, it’s de-lovely.
See the crowd in that church, see the proud parson
plopped on his perch.
Get the sweet beat of that organ sealing our doom.
‘Here goes the groom, boom!’
How they cheer and how they smile as we go galloping
down that aisle.
It’s divine, dear. It’s diveen, dear. It’s de-
wunderbar. It’s de victory.
It’s de valoop. It’s de vinner. It’s de voiks. It’s de-
lovely.
Look at the Whitest states in the rust belt and NE:
ME, NH, PA, OH, MI, WI, IA Trump won 4 1/4 out of the six.
I based my E.C. prediction (286 for Trump) on which states were the Whitest. I missed PA (20)
Cutting Premiums means higher taxes to PAY the COST ... unless Healthcare bills do SOMETHING ELSE ... cut COST.
No PAY bill that is politically acceptable is mathematically possible. Ryancare and McConnellcare both make the same mistake that Obamacare made. They focus on PAY to insurance companies and PAY to medical providers. The poor do not get any money. All these attempts are Corporatism...favoratism to big insurance and big hospital chains at the expense of taxpayers, and small medical providers and small insurance companies, and especially competition to insurance companies from Medishare and Direct Pay approaches to medical care.
As for the main theme of the article: If employment is high and the economy is strong and there is no unpopular war, the Republicans can gain seats.
To gain seats there is one more criteria. The Republicans have to run competent candidates and build smart get-out-the-vote efforts. Please no Murdochs or Walsh who say stupid things.
(D)ecimated
Makes one wonder how George McGovern lost.
I'm just guessing
(D)praved
No...Heroic, Courageous, and Amazing Kurdish Women.
(D}based.
The only way democrats win elections is when they convince the people they are not who they really are. It worked twice with Obama. He could not have pulled this off without the Media being totally in the tank for him. God I miss democrats like “Scoop” Jackson, and Sam Nunn, they were patriots.
Oddly enough Trump is the creation of the media. In the Republican primaries they gave him thousands of hours of relatively good coverage. They wanted him to be the Republican candidate as they deemed him easily defeat-able. To their absolute horror they found out they selected one of only three candidates that could defeat Hillary. The other two were Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. The media recognized Cruz as a mortal threat and went after him and Rubio. The media gave us Trump and to their horror he won.
Yep.
From the WashPost article “Democrats must embrace ideological diversity “
IE: lie.
You are correct, but I sense in your review that you think Cruz or Rubio could have won. I thought early on that ANY GOP candidate could beat Cankles, but seeing how they went after Trump, I don’t think anyone but Trump could have survived.
They would have had seventeen mistresses out for Ted-—whether or not a single one was true. They would have hung Rubio’s debt problems around his neck. The difference is, both those guys at some point would have gone soft, apologized, or otherwise caved. Not Trump.
But I agree, the media and Dems all thought Trump would be easy to beat because as always, they didn’t pay attention to what the voters really wanted.
But we’re finally at a point where I don’t think the Dems CAN “address their concerns.” You can only go so far into transgender bathrooms until you lose millions of people who just think it’s nuts. You can only saddle up to BLM for so long before it’s clear you hate cops, hate law and order, and hate “white.”
So I don’t think the Dems are even capable as of 2016 of addressing these issues. This is a big, big difference from the party of 2006, which got its butt beat, immediately recalibrated and ran a bunch of vets. Only a couple-—Webb for ex.-—won, but all of the 20 or so they ran in primaries won their primaries. It at least gave them, temporarily, an image that they didn’t hate America.
Then they elected ZEro, and that image went right out the window.
I the RINOs don’t manage to handle repealing ObamaCare and doing Tax Reform, the Dims probably will pick up seats because of voter apathy on our side.
They can pick up seats too, if many on our site want to repeat the midterm election of 2006, where so many on our side wanted to teach the gop a lesson. I will never forgive them if they will allow the repeat and let the rats to take over. And you know what will happen if they do. There will be no reelection for President Trump and the rats will succeed in filing impeachment charges against him.
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