Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
My comments were tongue-in-cheek. I was being facetious, not serious.
Lighten up a little. I sense an attitude.
Damn auto fill!
Bttt
And once again, this is a model run forecasting over 5 days out. We’ll see what things look like 3 days out. By then I would give a lot of credibility to the model tracks.
Go for it. Let's see how good YOU are.
That’s the ugliest thing I’ve seen since week before last.
Should actually weaken a bit before it gets to us. Waters are cooler coming into the area above Cuba. MB’s are low but the higher winds aren’t there yet as its gone into night. Go long popcorn if your not in it’s path. If you are, get busy.
Thanks.
Very helpful.
I'm largely in agreement with that...
"Nobody, and I mean nobody, can predict the future or change the climate for the better. Arrogance abounds among the believers."
This though, is nonsense. I can predict the future: "the sun will rise tomorrow". Satisfied?
Again, it is basic physics that "greenhouse gasses" raise the temperature of the planet. Go read Roy Spencer's site:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/
He's considered a "skeptic", but is a highly qualified scientist. At the same time, he disputes nothing about the basic science. The main controversy at this point is how much influence overall clouds have.
I live in Florida and raise beef cattle. I am very aware of the weather forecasts on a daily basis because I rely on rain to stay in business. But more times than not, the weather forecasters are wrong in their predictions about the rain.
You must not see the irony of you accusing me of not knowing the weather by saying I am just shooting my mouth off. Listen closely to what you just said about me, because that is what you just did yourself.
Apparently, in your mind, I can't talk about the weather without have some sort of meteorological degree. But you can because you have a degree in meteorology? Where are your credentials from?
This Will Rogers gem seems appropriate here, "Everybody talks about the weather but nobody can do anything about it."
I tend to rely on a weather rock....
if the rock is wet......its raining
If the rock is hot....the sun is shining...
If there is snow on the rock....its winter
If the rock is gone....its a CAT 5 ;-)
Irma has increased in intensity and wind speed and has been upgraded to Category three.
Previous models were calling for the 'Bermuda High' to remain stationary, but, it has moved to the east, and has less impact on the storm than expected.
A cold wave and the 'jet stream' from the north will have less impact than expected.
Therefore, the hurricane has traveled further westerly than the models expected, as calculated a few days ago.
* Prior to 6:00 PM, Gov. Scott of Florida has declared a "State of Emergency' exists in Florida.
* Tentative landfall may occur at Florida Keys on Saturday, baring any further changes, as a category #5 hurricane.
"Harvey" struck Texas as a category #2 hurricane, but meandered and wandered, and lingered when it dumped much of its 50 inches of rain ( just as a reminder).
891 mb!
WOW!!!!!
Must be nice to be so perfect.
Should one mistake you make taint everyone’s opinion of you for the rest of your life?
The path has been dropping over the last couple of days. It’s a big wobble or it will split Florida & Cuba. Hopefully it hits Cuba, for our sake. Will take some of the wind out of its sails. Still to far out to really know. So, it currently is going to hit everyone in Florida???? We shall see.
Ouch.......
likewise
And I am not reading anybody else's opinion on this. I've read a ton of materials over the years and have made up my own mind.
I am with David Horowitz when he says that the issue with these climate change enablers, is that the issue they talk about is never the real issue. Climate change is just a ruse.
The issue is always about the revolution to overthrow capitalism and replace it with socialism or communism.
This has nothing to do with the weather, climate, environment or the earth. It has to do with fleecing the masses.
Give it up. I am not interested.
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