Posted on 09/09/2017 2:08:31 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The entire Florida Peninsula and points north are poised to experience Hurricane Irma after the storm hugged Cuba's northern coastline. Thousands of Floridians who evacuated the Atlantic cost to Gulf Coast areas found their safe shelter under direct threat from Hurricane Irma as the forecast shifted W Friday night and Saturday. Hurricane Irma's prolonged interaction with Cuba diminished its strength to Category 3.
Irma is forecast to increase in strength as it crosses the FL Straits. The Florida Keys experienced strong outer bands while Irma grazed the N Cuba coastline.
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Hurricane Irma Live Thread I
Hurricane Irma Live Thread II
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017
...IRMA HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...
...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
By “right time” I mean this is no time to damn NHC. Aside from them actually doing a pretty good job with the Harvey and Irma predictions, they are the best we’ve got, and right now we need as much citizen trust in them as possible.
Now, when all this is over, if you have better forecasting methods, or better ways (from the gov’t side of things) to inform the public in a level-headed manner, that would make for great discussion here, and / or you can submit your ideas to the Trump Administration, etc.
Also, we should not be gumming up this thread too much - it is primarily an INFORMATION thread. (In fact, I’ll reply only once here, and if you want to post a thread about NHC “hype and hysteria”, maybe(!) I’ll come over and discuss it there, too, if the mods don’t can it first. Which they should. If you want to focus on the media, in that thread be my guest - some HAVE been irresponsible in this situation.)
Next, there is this:
I’ve seen comments from contractors that one has to go to concrete block or better (stronger) construction to not risk serious damage in a Cat 5. (Maybe someone here can confirm?)
Then, look at the storm surge maps (predictions) from a few days ago. Then talk to anyone on the Mississippi coast when Katrina hit. Then, drive around the SE FL coast (Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, etc.) 5.5 million people on 6 ft. average elevation, sandwiched between the ocean and the swamp. The storm surge maps typically indicate, for red color, a 10% chance of a 9 or more ft. surge. Add waves. How many residents live in submarines? Pick a red residential area. Should that area be evacuated? Let’s make you the mayor: Your call.
What is the “upside” to you, the mayor, of issuing an evac, and then the storm turns or weakens?
As I write this, it is evident Irma’s brush with Cuba (and other things) have weakened and kept Irma down to a Cat 3. Thank God. This will still be bad, but a track a little further North (and well within the forecast “cone”) likely would have been much worse.
Gah - sorry. One in Wauchula (south of I-4) and another off of I-4 and Rt. 27 junction.
Wow great tweet by Bastardi. Where does he work? I can’t see him saying that working for the weather channel. Can you imagine if Jim Cantore said that? He be fired before he got out of the hurricane on location.
I trust S FL bldg codes — as long as they are enforced - -
over anywhere else. Case of pure self interest. Owners don’t want to lose homes, insurance companies don’t want big payouts. What I was trying to recall - - and sorry, but I’ve got stuff going on from Sebastian to Ft Lauderdale this morning— but I was trying to remember if they raised the elevation on US 1 after Wilma. Seems to me, (maybe bad memory) about 20 miles from Marathon to Conch Key on US1 was flooded post Wilma.
TECO just shut off power to greater Tampa metro. Praying for my children who decided to ride it out.
I HOPE This bad girl gets over land quickly... east of Naples.
Unfortunately, I’m not sure whether this GIF isn’t just showing a wobble. The overall storm mass still seems to be tracking N-NW. The NWS has been calling for more westward drifting later... (In the next few hours).
True about New Madrid, Arizona, not so much.
I wonder if Missouri has the barrage of frequent earthquakes that LA does.
Insurance companies have prohibitive rates for earthquakes here for a reason.
Too quick on the trigger. Power is still up.
>>I’m not being inconsiderate to them.
>>Letting them face the consequences of their own actions is a whole different thing than the selfish people who think only of themselves, like those who don’t think of the impact of their actions on others.
You’re just teaching them a lesson, because you know better and they did not receive proper training or they did not learn the lesson yet. Life is hard.
The Golden Rule: If they’re gonna be stupid, they better learn to be tough.
Florida passed several laws concerning insurance and what it must cover in Florida from the late 1990s to about 2005. It remains to be seen how the new laws will work. I hope it does work out for those that need it.
Shepard Smith trying to play fake meteorologist like he has any idea where the storm will finally track.
Well it looks like it is headed my way...
If the roof does not blow away it might be alright..
Spent the last four days getting ready..
Lived he 17 years just move a great place (Grand Palm,Venice Fl
Not an old people place like most of SW Florida.
Lots of kids and young families.
Also young and strong..lot of police and firemen..
We have been putting up shutters for a week..
never though it was coming this far west..
Most of the houses in this area have storm shutters up..
they come with new homes now..building code
Old neighborhood had none..make my own from plywood..
The metal ones are a light lighter than plywood..good for an old guy..
Got two 4x4s to brace garage door and even tied down the air conditioner..
I was getting ready for the next storm not Irma..
People in older homes could be in real trouble...
Got to live by the old iron workers motto..Life is a bitch and then you die...
Does not apply to the Clinton’s
We children of 1948 are resilient.
Well said. A lot of residential construction in S.Fla. is cinder block up to where the roof starts and then it is stucco over plywood and without proper bracing would have difficulty withstanding a Cat. 4.
;o)
I’ve walked through some houses under construction in Fl. The amount of bracing, rebar and concrete is very impressive. As long as you don’t have flooding or storm surge issues, They seem safe enough to ride out most storms.
Really good quality stuff there looks like lots of tree damage in the future.
The post-Andrew building codes are excellent. When I had to repair my home after said storm (northern eye wall hit my house, 165 MPH winds), I rebuilt what I could to the new standards.
Just a note, there were some concrete block buildings that failed under those wind speeds, but I dont know if we will ever see sustained speeds like that in a storm for a long time. Irma had that look, but Cuba took a lot out of her.
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