Personally, if my Tampa home did NOT flood, I'd be happy as hell, even if I evacuated. IMHO, the storm center began passing over land north of Marco Island, which means there was a less powerful wind, with less storm over less water than if it had stayed on the coast. Thus, minimized surge.
They have to forecast what the models show.
If they underestimate and there is more damage and loss of life, they’ll be castigated for it.
Better to prepare for the worst and fnd out it wasn’t needed. Then just be grateful instead of criticizing.
And anyone who thinks they can do it better can just step up to the plate and show everyone how it’s done.