Posted on 11/07/2017 8:24:03 AM PST by Hojczyk
It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era.
The auto industry is on an accelerating change curve. For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile.
Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules.
The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you'll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway.
On the freeway, it will merge seamlessly into a stream of other modules traveling at 120, 150 mph. The speed doesn't matter. You have a blending of rail-type with individual transportation.
Then, as you approach your exit, your module will enter deceleration lanes, exit and go to your final destination. You will be billed for the transportation. You will enter your credit card number or your thumbprint or whatever it will be then. The module will take off and go to its collection point, ready for the next person to call.
Most of these standardized modules will be purchased and owned by the Ubers and Lyfts and God knows what other companies that will enter the transportation business in the future.
A minority of individuals may elect to have personalized modules sitting at home so they can leave their vacation stuff and the kids' soccer gear in them. They'll still want that convenience.
The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.
(Excerpt) Read more at autonews.com ...
A parallel road has even bigger problems, not the least of which being that where the freeway is is probably the best place for a freeway. Trying to make another one involves a lot of eminent domain, even on short hops between big cities (problem with big cities, lots of people own stuff for lots of miles around them), the court battles alone would keep that project on the shelf for decades.
That’s one of those ideas where the technical part is the easy part, honestly we could do it now, we could have done it with the first electric car. It’s the logistics that will block it.
“ride that at 600 mph”
That is well and good until they reinstitute the 55 speed limit. (just kidding).
“Minority Report” as documentary?
KYPD
IIRC there is a flashing all-yellow light on ND-200 and I blew through that at about 2am one night while going about 150mph in my Vette. This was in Feb 1987.
“...because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest...”
The guy is delusional. Seriously - people that believe this might be dangerous, and in 20 years go shoot up a car dealership.
The other evening someone posted a live webcam of Jackson, Wyoming (at the main intersection by the town square with all the elk antlers).
It was probably 9 pm there, traffic was maybe two cars every 5 minutes. I was sort of surprised - although I guess it is between summer vacations and ski season there.
Yes, and Spandex jackets...one for everyone.
You make me smile. You assume way too much.
Exactly. These big picture planning types never see the trees for the forest.
Otherwise you wouldn't have states like California legislating technology not ready for prime time (electric cars); you wouldn't have others legislating 150 year old technology (rail).
Certainty is a negative indicator of accuracy in predicting the future.
Glad you’re smiling :)
...not sure what I’m assuming, considering these are the very discussions I have each day. I maybe played down some technical challenges that remain but an awful lot is already working. Moving from the lab to production though is no small feat, which is my main point.
“The wannabe oligarchs of the world despise the notion of the “common folk” travelling where they wish, how they wish, and when they wish.”
Like the wealthy climate change alarmist Leonardo DiCaprio, they will still take their gas guzzling monster SUV’s to the airport where they jump on their private jets destined for a private island where they hop on their diesel engined 150 foot yachts. No doubt they’ll then jet off to a European capital where they’ll stay in a luxurious hotel and eat in the world’s finest restaurants while attending an environmental conference where they will bemoan the excessive carbon consumption of the masses and insist on more regulation and less energy consumption for the unwashed.
I don’t believe this.
My grandkids will be running around in my CJ7.
If they have to go off road - so much the better.
I understand, for example, that everyone who is anyone has a self piloting program. The same can be said of electric cars. In fact, we've been hearing about the inevitability of electric cars for years. California has rolled back their goals time and again.
Hybrids are doing relatively well (especially Prius) but pure electrics, no. The drop in oil and fuel prices changed decision making. Now it's SUVs, baby. The news that Congress may eliminate the subsidy for electrics has cratered Tesla's stock. What was considered inevitable two years ago is now increasingly a long shot.
Bottom line...you're assuming people want to 'buy' self driving cars. I see no evidence that's any more likely than electrics or micro cars. A certain 'urban' appeal, select situations, but no more than that. Strictly on the margins.
I also believe you're underestimating the complexity and mechanical challenge of self piloted vehicles. It's great they have passed certain tests, but that's a world away from everyday reliability systems...true of any digital solution to an analog problem.
Different time, different people, different technology, but the same theme. Some very smart people fall in love with some technology and consider the adoption of same in evitable. Same old, same old.
One possible transition step might be a vehicle in which one could hit a button to engage the autopilot but take back control when you wanted. In congested areas, the autopilot would probably be required. This would be handled automatically by the software, which would be in constant contact with the smartroad system. A next step would be for the autopilot to take over instantly in collision avoidance situations. People would be gradually weaned off driving. The last nail in the coffin will be the space and amenities that will become available when there is no need for a driver. The architecture of the interior will change. People will prefer stretching out in a lounge to sitting behind the wheel. It will still be personal transportation. You will just have a robotic brain acting as your chauffeur.
I’m fascinated by the numbers of homes that had telephones in the first half of the twentieth century. It went from 20 percent in the 20s to 80 percent in the 60s to 90 percent in the 80s and finally hit around the high 90s percent around 2000.
So, it literally took nearly a century for something as simple as the telephone to basically hit full penetration.
Since then, we are now at 50 percent of homes with only a cell phone and 35 percent with both.
In other words, it’s taken 10 years for Smart Phones to hit the levels of penetration that it took telephones 50 years to hit.
No last mile for cellphones, actually very little cabling at all, it’s all satellites and towers, power for the towers is about all the cabling you need. That helps the logistics a lot. But of course logistics can’t cause adoption, it can only hinder. The other part of the equation is the people deciding en mas and very quickly: I want that thing. In that I think smartphones have profited off two previously existing trends: computers and gadgets. Before the smartphone ever showed up society had already accepted computers as a part of life, especially internet connected computers. And was already hooked on doodads, from walkmans, to various PDAs, pagers, keyfobs and everything. So when the computer in your pocket showed up the people were already primed for it. I don’t think most people even considered it, these were two things they already had in their life, merging them into one was a natural progression.
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