Posted on 11/21/2017 2:15:45 PM PST by drewh
First, let them carve each other up like Hitler and Stalin did for 2+ years b4 Normandy.
“I wonder if there are a ton of incidents in SA that we are not hearing about?”
The Saudi regime has always had to work hard to suppress their Shia minority (10-15%), and Iran has long sought to develop fifth columns inside Saudi Arabia (the Saudis in turn cultivate anti-regime groups inside Iran).
The Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia bordering the Persian Gulf (where most of the oil is) has always had a significant Shi’ite population - the biggest concentration in the kingdom. Neighboring Bahrain actually has a Shi’ite majority, although the ruling family and Government are Sunni.
The Governor of the Eastern province has always had a special role in controlling the Shia, and they have historically appointed famously tough guys for that role.
The Khobar Towers bombing which targeted US troops in the Eastern Province (near Dammam/Dhahran) was an Iranian operation. Last year, the Saudis executed the famous Saudi Shi’ite Cleric Nimr al Nimr. There was fear at the time that the Shia might come out in open rebellion if the execution was carried out, but it did not materialize.
The Sunni/Shia conflict is a significant domestic security issue for the Saudis, as well as perhaps their main foreign policy security concern.
I would think that any Saudi leader would want to get things a lot more settled in Yemen before expanding the conflict. It will be great if the Crown Prince (imminent King?) is so aware of Iranian threats, but I find it difficult to take the Debka piece at face value. Why would any Saudi Arabian leader want to blow up Lebanon right now? Only if they think Hizbullah is about to unleash something and they are acting pre-emptively???
Bad idea! Iran has three times as many people as Saudi Arabia.
Iran has also recruited militias from other Shi’te populations to fight for them. Like Hizbollah in Lebanon, they have several in Iraq, as well as Foreign Legion-like militias of Afghan and Pakistani Shi’ites fighting for them in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.
In turn, the Saudis have a smattering of foreign Sunnis fighting for them in Yemen, but have historically wielded the large Egyptian and Turkish Armies as their Sunni surrogates (the Turks are no longer on board) - as well as the Superpower American Trump card.
In the case of Iran, Saudi ally Pakistan shares a border with Iran, and could pose a formidable military threat.
The joke has long been that if Saudi Arabia decided to go to war, the big question would be who get’s the contract. Looks like Israel is now under consideration by the Saudis, to take on a war for them.
“Why would any Saudi Arabian leader want to blow up Lebanon right now?”
The Saudis are being surrounded, and the dominoes in the region are rapidly falling in Iran’s favor.
The Pro-Western Kurds in Iraq were recently stripped of the Kirkuk oil fields (by Shia militias), and previous powerful ally Turkey has no sided with Iranian-leaning Qatar against the Saudis.
In recent weeks, Iranian-supported militias in Syria and Iraq captured the cities of Abu Kamal and al Qaim from ISIS, securing a road across the Syrian/Iraqi border.
This completes the long held Iranian strategic objective of securing a “Shia Crescent” - a continuous land route from Iran to the Mediterranean, where the Iranian military has freedom of movement. Saudi Arabia has just been flanked to North by their mortal enemy, who is already on their Southern Flank in Yemen, an eight hour drive from Mecca.
The Saudis are being surrounded.
Correction on Iran completing their “Shia Crescent”.
ISIS re-captured the Syrian Border City of Abu Kamal (Albu Kamal, Al Bukamal, are all correct variations).
This might be the Saudis last stand to prevent the Iranian envelopment, using their jihadi surrogates of ISIS.
Reportedly, Iranian General Sulemani has personally set up a command post to direct the battle, and lost his right hand man in the fighting. Looks like the Iranians will soon recapture the town and secure their main supply route however.
The Saudis are our enemies, just like the Iranians. Remember 9/11?
A pox on both their houses.
It's kind of an extended family. Which part is the source close to?
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
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Consider the source. As to SA planning a war with Iran, and Israel planning a war with Hizbollah/Lebanon, of course they've planned these things.
thanks for your insights Bo, good as always.
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