Posted on 12/02/2017 1:37:52 AM PST by Kaslin
FINAL UPDATE - The votes are in, and the ayes have it. After a marathon evening of debating and considering amendments, the US Senate has approved the GOP's tax reform bill, which would simplify the tax code and cut taxes for the vast majority of American households, small businesses and corporations. Every Republican voted yes, except for Tennessee's Bob Corker. Democrats uniformly voted no. This is a big legislative victory for the GOP, which overcame a great deal of ferocious opposition -- much of it rooted in misinformation -- to pass the legislation. Up next, a conference committee with the House. But here's your summary for tonight:
FINAL: With Vice President Pence presiding, the US Senate approves a major tax cut & simplification package, 51-49. The bill will now head to a conference committee, where it will be merged with the House-passed bill.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 2, 2017
UPDATE III - It's now looking official: Senate Republicans have the votes to pass tax reform. Arizona's Jeff Flake announced he's jumping on the bandwagon, and the finalized legislation includes a (paid for) amendment sought by Maine's Susan Collins that mirrors the House-passed SALT (state and local tax deduction) compromise. That strongly suggests that she'll be a "yes," too. Add it up, and that's 51, negating the need for Vice President Pence to break a potential tie. Depending on Bob Corker's mood in a few hours, McConnell might even get all 52 GOP votes. But all he really needs is 50-plus-one, and he says he's got 'em:
BREAKING: McConnell walks onto the floor and tells reporters: “We have the votes.”— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) December 1, 2017
ORIGINAL POST - The Republican-held House of Representatives did its part by passing a tax overhaul earlier this month, with zero Democrats supporting the effort. That bill cut taxes and boosted after-tax incomes, on average, across every income group in the country, and is projected by nonpartisan analysts to grow the US economy and create close to one million new full-time jobs. It would also lower the tax burden on job-creating small businesses (key small business advocacy groups have endorsed the Republican push), and make America's extremely high statutory and effective corporate tax rates far more competitive internationally. But we've seen this movie before. With the "resistance" in full demagogic throat, and Democrats bound in lockstep opposition, will the GOP's narrow Senate majority fumble the ball, as they did on Obamacare? We'll know soon enough, and tea leaves are mixed. A vote is expected later today. As we brace what's next, let's first note three developments from yesterday (see update) that may portend a successful outcome (see update II) for Mitch McConnell's conference:
(1) John McCain is a committed "yes." As the Senator who more or less single-handedly killed his party's "repeal and replace" efforts in July, having him clearly on board is a huge boon to Republican leadership. McCain's official statement touted the expected benefits of the bill -- acknowledging concerns about it, but ultimately determining that the legislation's upside was strong enough to secure his support:
After careful consideration, I have decided to support the Senate #TaxReform bill. Though not perfect, this bill will deliver much-needed reform to our tax code, grow the economy & provide long overdue tax relief for American families. https://t.co/BeWZAT0SjM pic.twitter.com/6qwYhmyE5p— John McCain (@SenJohnMcCain) November 30, 2017
He even specifically addressed and endorsed the proposal's provision that would repeal Obamacare's tent pole, the federal individual mandate tax: "I have also argued that health care reform, which is important both to the well-being of our citizens and to the vitality of our economy, should proceed by regular order. This bill does not change that. As a matter of principle, I’ve always supported individual liberty and believe the federal government should not penalize Americans who cannot afford to purchase expensive health insurance. By repealing the individual mandate, this bill would eliminate an onerous tax that especially harms those from low-income brackets. In my home state of Arizona, 80 percent of people who currently pay the individual mandate penalty earn less than $50,000 per year," he wrote.
(2) The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation released its "dynamic scoring" analysis that the Senate bill would add less than $1 trillion to deficits over a decade, as opposed to the on-paper $1.4 trillion figure reached under "static scoring." The reason for this is that JCT anticipates the tax relief package would add nearly one percentage point to GDP growth over the next ten years, resulting in new revenues. Many supporters will argue that JCT underestimates the economic benefits of tax reform, but their report still offers two positive data points:
Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP "by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10- year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period."— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 30, 2017
(3) For what it's worth:
Just spoke w/ Senate leadership source who I'd characterize as hopeful but never quite confident on the "repeal & replace" whip count over the summer. Sounds *much* more confident on tax reform today, despite some issues still being ironed out. #fwiw— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 30, 2017
That was the state of play late yesterday afternoon, with my well-placed source telling me McConnell and company were in a "really good place" in terms of corralling the requisite 50-plus-one votes. The source stopped short of guaranteeing passage at the time, but described potential holdouts as playing an active and "constructive" role in shaping the bill throughout the process, carried out through regular order. Susan Collins is said to be in a decent spot, and McConnell's "substitute amendment" (effectively the bill that was formally debated on the floor) was co-sponsored by...Lisa Murkowski. The three squeakiest wheels, I was told, were outgoing Tennessee Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake (who want a deficit-related "backstop" to reduce the tax cuts if economic growth falls short of targets), and Wisconsin's Ron Johnson. Johnson been characterized as a "hard no" in the media, but he's a pro-business, low-tax conservative at heart. I'm not so sure he's still in the 'nay' column, considering his evolving posture (this was from Wednesday evening-- and see update below):
We still have work to do, but I have been working with the administration and Senate leadership to make progress toward a better bill. - rj #taxreform— Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) November 29, 2017
The bigger challenges appear to stem from the other two Senators, who emerged at the center of some floor drama last evening, which bubbled to the surface in full view of reporters. (My source quoted above still sounds optimistic, but last evening was a setback). Relevant parties spent the overnight hours seeking to hammer out an accommodation to address Corker and Flake's deficit concerns after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that a proposed "trigger" mechanism compromise did not pass procedural muster under reconciliation rules. Might that eleventh-hour wrinkle cause the upper chamber GOP to once again face-plant? Stay tuned for the yeas and nays, which may again blow up in embarrassing fashion -- or could result in a big policy and political win for Republicans. In the meantime, the Left is shouting as loudly as possible to kill the bill. Some of their biggest claims are false. Equip yourself with the facts, and help educate others. The empirically-supportable truth is that the vast majority of taxpayers stand to benefit from tax reform. Nevertheless, every single Senate Democrat marched along to Chuck Schumer's beat and voted against even debating the proposal, some of whom defended their decision with nonsensical explanations like this:
I voted against the motion to proceed on the Republican #taxreform plan because I haven’t seen a final bill. I’m still trying to work w/ my R colleagues & @realdonaldtrump to find a bipartisan way forward.— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 29, 2017
He couldn't vote to advance a debate over how the final bill would look because he...hadn't seen the final bill, or something. Got it. I'll leave you with a parting thought for Mssrs. Corker and Flake:
Think very carefully, Sens Flake & Corker.
If you jointly jeopardize tax reform, it would (a) risk defeating your own long-held policy goal, (b) reek of anti-Trump pettiness, & (c) reinforce idea that GOP should prioritize personal loyalty to Trump in primaries. Lose-lose-lose.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE - As I predicted above, Johnson is now a 'yes,' and despite last night's worrisome snag, my sources are telling me that things are again looking good. They stopped short of an airtight guarantee, but both said they expect a successful vote at some point today:
?? Sen. Ron Johnson tells Milwaukee radio WISN 1130 minutes ago he is a "yes" vote https://t.co/b0eJAzNIJL— J.D. Durkin (@jiveDurkey) December 1, 2017
"The question seems to be, how many Republican votes are they going to get? Is it going to be 50, 51, or 52? But, at this point...it would be really shocking if they didn't get to 50 which is what they need." - @guypbenson— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) December 1, 2017
This is what I've heard within the last hour, having spoken w/ several plugged-in sources. Sounding like 49 locked-in 'yes' votes, w strong likelihood that at least 1 more comes into the fold. Leadership optimistic about a vote later today. https://t.co/59dtanMrcl— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE II - It looks like this is happening (or maybe not?):
BREAKING: Second-ranking Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, says GOP has the votes to pass sweeping tax overhaul.— The Associated Press (@AP) December 1, 2017
New: Sen. Bob Corker tells @siobhanehughes the bill will probably pass:
https://t.co/wspkmPMJ0H via @WSJ— Richard Rubin (@RichardRubinDC) December 1, 2017
Big potential problem for GOP leaders: Susan Collins disputes Cornyn’s claim that they have her support for the GOP tax bill. (They see her as their 50th and pivotal vote)
“I can’t imagine why Senator Cornyn is speaking for me,” she told me. “I speak for myself”— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) December 1, 2017
I don’t even want to know what you think FROGJERK means!
“...It is the obligation of the government to recognize and respect marriage and the family as institutions created by God in anyway they can - even by the tax code if so be.”
Right - that’s why they legalized abortion on demand, Title X family “planning” funding (read “contraceptives” - an anonymous form of abortion), no-fault divorce, and same sex “marriage.”
Fact is, if they just made a flat tax of 10% FOR EVERYBODY - no deductions, no loop holes, no giveaways, no exceptions - none of this would be an issue, and they’d have more revenue than they knew what to do with.
Of course, this would also drastically limit the federal government’s power to manipulate, coerce, and otherwise defraud the American people.
“... Anyway, time to move on to the next issue. The tax bill debate is pretty much over.”
You mean “time to move on to the next issue” - that you’ll manipulate so to find fault with Trump ...
Maybe it’s time for you to just “move on” somewhere else.
Good reason to boycott all products from Commiefornia - let the whole stinking pile collapse on itself.
More Winning!
Right on Mark!
According to another Freeper, the Senate version of the bill actually keeps the medical deduction and reduces the threshold to 7.5% of AGI (The House bill eliminates the deduction), so our parents still have a shot at keeping the med. deduction during the reconcile in committee. cross your fingers, I will be writing my House rep. to express my concerns. See this post: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3609978/posts?page=15#15
The clapping seals with their endless anti this anti that banter. It’s almost becoming the go to term anymore when you fully disagree with policy. Almost like hearing liberals call conservatives tea baggers. For those yelping anti Trump they made it about the person aka worship vs. an intellectual argument. Pay no notice, this isn’t about Trump as you and I know
This is actually my biggest concern.
I’m willing to subsidize some of the insanity if it keeps the insanity contained.
I don't like much of this bill....we're making a big mistake IMO...we're not thinking big picture...
personally we'll probably benefit for a while...and then we'll be run out of our house..
one thing for sure there is NO tax planning anymore...there is nothing to go to...perhaps if we just quit our jobs we can save on taxes, but then we’ll be in the doghouse so its all a moot point.
property taxes do not go down if you maintain your house....
its going to force many older people to sell....
what does this $10000 allowance for state and local taxes mean anyway...I need my PROPERTY taxes to be deductible to get over the threshold...
I'm against the this tax bill...against it...
if we're denied our deductions, then everybody should be denied
anyone that is in favor of this tax "reform" had better not complain or demand special deductions....in for a penny, in for a pound, or something like that...
I tend to agree, but getting rid of all deductions (including the “standard” and “child” ones) would be a “bridge too far” in the politicians’ world. I definitely wouldn’t mind getting rid of them all and just adjust the tax rates to give everyone a tax cut across the board. Raising the “std.” deduction hurts charities as more and more people cannot deduct their contributions via itemization, so are less motivated to contribute.
Agree with you 100%.
The sad thing is real reform like a fair or flat tax was possible here and this is what the GOP serves up.
Again, very true.
This was a squandered opportunity. The House, Senate, Mnuchin, and Cohn carried out the orders of their donors. This wasn't a MAGA exercise.
By the way, are you still on this "subsidy" kick when it comes to people wanting to keep more of their own money? That term was most likely dreamed up by the K Street crowd that was paid big bucks to sell this piece of garbage tax bill - and you and others fall for it like a Pavlonian dog.
The states that you hate so much are the ones who keep the Federal treasury afloat. In most cases, they get back pennies on the dollar back from the Feds, and some states get back $6, $7, or more back.
Next, you are probably going to start screaming about people "not paying their fair share!"
I don’t give a rat’s a$$ whether this bill is helpful to me personally or not.
But he is being disingenuous. He thinks it will pump up the stock market (at least in the short term). He is most likely very correct on that. At least for awhile.
Therefore, he is going to benefit personally.
There is nothing wrong with wanting to make more on your investments. But at least be honest about it vette.
Oh really?
I have stated over and over here again that I love Trump. You have treated me, and others, like we are members of Antifa for not wanting our taxes jacked up by the Feds.
And yes - I was (and am) ticked about that violating his MAGA promises on the campaign trail.
But here is a little tidbit for you that perhaps you missed in yesterday's news:
Hours after Senate GOP passes tax bill, Trump says he’ll consider raising corporate rate
Well, well.
Hours after the pre-dawn passage of a $1.5 trillion tax cut, President Trump suggested for the first time Saturday that he would consider a higher corporate rate than the one Senate Republicans had just endorsed, in remarks that could complicate sensitive negotiations to pass a final bill. On his way to New York for three fundraisers, Trump told reporters that the corporate tax rate in the GOP plan might end up rising to 22 percent from 20 percent. Lawmakers in both the House and Senate had fought hard to keep the corporate rate low, with the Senate late Friday rejecting a Republican-backed proposal to push it up to 21 percent in exchange for more working-family tax breaks.....The House and Senate intend to take steps as soon as Monday to set up a conference committee to negotiate the significant differences between the Senate plan and the version passed by the House last month. But Trump’s statement Saturday threatened to introduce a complication....
“Business tax all the way down from 35 to 20,” Trump told reporters, remarking on a core provision of the Senate bill. “It could be 22 when it all comes out, but it could also be 20. We’ll see what ultimately comes out.”....Moving the corporate tax rate up by 2 percentage points could raise $200 billion, money Trump might need to try to satisfy the concerns of Republicans frustrated that the plan does not reduce top individuals’ tax rates enough or of others such as Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), who argued that the bill should do more for low-income families.
Rubio complained Friday that colleagues would not even allow him to move the corporate rate to 20.94 percent, saying they acted as if this would be a “catastrophe.”....
Lowering the corporate tax rate was a centerpiece of the plan, and Republicans have said that it will help businesses free up money to invest, grow and raise wages. They continually reshaped the tax-cut bills in the House and Senate to help businesses, even if it meant cutting back on tax benefits for individuals and families.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) dismissed suggestions that the corporate rate could rise to 22 percent, pointing to votes in both the House and Senate that would set it at 20 percent. “That would be a major change,” McConnell said in a telephone interview, adding that the vote showed he does not “have much of a margin.”
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Trump is more on my side here than you! He knows both the House and Senate bills are screwing individuals too much, and wants the corporates to live with just a slightly smaller tax cut. And the swamp is aghast.
This article restores my faith that Trump is fighting for me. You are the one who is siding more that Mitchy McConnell and Paul "I Cut The Pensions of Disabled Veterans" Ryan. And before you give me any this "liberal media" garbage - the Post is quoting Trump from yesterday.
I hope you are not going to commit heresy and disagree with Trump that the current bills give away too much to the corporate side at the expense of individuals. I may have to suggest you are a DU plant, tell you to leave FR, or suggest you should be banned.
Enjoy!
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