Posted on 01/12/2018 4:36:18 PM PST by equaviator
Cool.
I like your analysis. Electric cars can work very well in urban areas.
But, if they are going to take away the steering wheel and pedals, they better put in a controller!
You’ve never worked with automated equipment.
Not for traffic violations, because electronic systems are "perfect". But there are other reasons to pull a car over, however. And there will be a long period in which self-drivers will be sharing the roads with traditional vehicles. The need for traffic cops won't go away anytime soon, and besides the unions won't stand for that.
I spend a lot of time in areas with no cell phone coverage in Nevada. Three or four times a year now I run across idiots that are lost. They are depending on cell phone tower gps and don’t have a clue what to do when they get out of range. It is laughably funny to find lost “Burners” in August. They invariably are stuck because their Subaru Outback is high centered on a rock or their Barbie Jeep is stuck in powdered alkali. Their defense is the road looked ok on my phone.
Who ever would have thought that defective ignition switches would have led to hundreds of deaths and injuries?
We’re not “rich”, but we are aging. I see this as a way to extend people’s independence far longer than is normal now. If it is safe, I’m a fan!
One problem with self driving cars is that they will likely obey the speed limit, not good if you’re in a hurry to get somewhere........LOL!
Because of economic realities, the entities that provide the "on-demand" vehicles will never have enough vehicles on hand to meet peak demand situations. Users will be forced to "car pool", so you might have your kids sharing a ride with a pervert or someone with a contagious disease, you might find yourself riding with a vomitous drunk. How would evacuations in advance of hurricanes or wildfires work out?
For some, reliance on on-demand vehicles will be fine, for others that will be unacceptable. Private ownership of vehicles will never totally go away, except by government edict.
Believe it or not, freedom of movement is important to many people, and is something to be feared by any would-be tyrant.
Will the car has a steering wheel and brakes as optional equipment?
You make some good points. But...
Ride-sharing won’t be necessary.
Vehicles won’t need to be owned. And, the “rides” will be provided by fleet operators, but not by corporation such as Uber or Lyft. The fleet operators will be the carmakers themselves, since there won’t be any business needs for car dealers and manufacturers will have to operate their own vehicles in fleet formats in order to make up the difference in lost sales.
Vehicles will be summoned via phone or smartphones or PCs or even smart home assistants and perhaps smart TVs, and can be used on a scheduled basis, such as for a morning ride to work and afternoon ride back from work.
The whole autonomous vehicle future will be very disruptive, and it will affect car ownership (no longer available) and fuel-usage (much lower demand, if any), and cities and states and the whole country will have their complete roads and highways changed according to the needs and demands of vehicle usage. For example, no more parking lots, and no more parking garages at airports and no more home garages.
We’re in for a very disrupted future.
Apart from the ownership question (carmaker vs. corporation), what you are describing are essentially what we all know as taxicabs.
For better or worse, personal transportation will become a regulated public utility.
And what happens when an electric utility experiences a demand spike? Mostly they restrict delivery of their service (i.e. brown outs) as a better alternative to cutting service altogether.
In your scenario the same thing would happen. The scheduling computer recognizes that several people from a given area are simultaneously requesting transportation to a certain destination, and the computer also realizes that there aren’t enough available cars at that moment to give everyone a private ride. What happens then?
There may well be service contract levels such that for a lower cost, you might have to accept pooling at times, or for a greater cost, you might have a guarantee of private transit. Waiting time will surely be an issue, hopefully with discounts for long waits.
We will probably see the end of mass spectator events (sports and concerts). Malls are almost dead now, so they will disappear altogether. Most brick’n’mortar retail options will be gone.
As you say, the future is sure to be very disrupted.
Thank you for that authentic frontier gibberish.
Depends on the purpose. I have no problem getting on an airplane, even if I am not in the cockpit flying it. The Z06 is great for autocross or just blasting down the road, but my work car (a Volt) is more of a tool. I see it the way a tech sees a screwdriver.
I’m not saying there is zero market for autonomous cars. Just I can’t see it being more than 25% of the market.Or maybe some hybrid.
Nice to make your acquaintance. I bought my GT at 22 years old and have spent 22 years with it, great car! If you have any questions bout it, feel free to ask. Currently it has a 2.4 liter motor out of an Opel Frontera from the 90s (same block as the 1.9 liter) Bosch Motronic fuel injection, a 5 speed trans from a mid 80 Opel Rekord, BMW front brakes, Chevy S10 clutch and Renault master and booster. Whole car is rewired with a modern fusebox. Needs new exhaust, but there is always something.
The cars are still out there and are not too very expensive. You can call Todd at Opels Unlimited or Opel GT Source and they can sell you anything from parts to a whole running car. Let me know if you have any questions.
Absolutely! When I was young enough to drive a sports car, I wanted it fast and I wanted to feel the road through the wheel. And I wanted a shift knob that let me feel that I was controlling the car and not going along for the ride.
My husband loved driving so much that he used to drive through the night on the straight country roads outside of Chicago at night. It wasn’t to see the scenery or get somewhere. It was just to feel in control of the car.
Any idea just how wrong a Corvette is for the small, up and down windy roads in New York and Connecticut?
“Thank you for that authentic frontier gibberish.”
Heartfelt, too.
It won’t be carmaker vs corporation. It will be carmaker vs carmeker, sinc the only players left in the auto industry will be the different carmakers, but also acting as fleet operators for their own vehicles.
And, no, it won’t be like the current taxi operations of today. It will be all self-driving vehicles, with fleet operators (aka: the carmakers themselves) running business, with no human drivers whatsoever.
BTW time we get to that future 20-30 years from now, the fleet operators will have created their own power-generating stations, with no need to tie to the general electric grid. There will be no need for recharging stations on the roads, since all recharging will be done at the fleet operations centers. Instead of car dealers, we’ll have fleet operations centers to handle all the needs of the vehicles.
When it comes to demand for a number of vehicles in same area, that should be no problem at all, since, when a vehicle is done with a “ride”, it will become immediately available for the next ride. The number of vehicles available will depend upon population size and number of businesses and types of businesses in the area. If you think about it, most cars/vehicles sit at home or in parking lots for more than 90% of the time. That means that, making available enough vehicles to handle 80-90% of the needs of TODAY will more than meet the requirements of that driverless future. Vehicles will be available almost instantly, since they’ll be everywhere ready to be summoned at any time.
I also don’t see how a driverless future would disrupt going to stadiums for concerts or sporting events. In fact, more people might go to those events if they have the worries about parking and driving taken care of for them. I would not mind just going and enjoying and not worrying about finding a parking spot, where that parking spot might be a 1/2 mile away or more. Just drop me off at the door, and go find another rider in need. Even the older folks who don’t drive will find getting anywhere a lot easier, and will go places where they depended on family and friends to take them when they had the time.
The “disruption” in that future is for the better, but not necessarily for government entities that will lose huge tax revenues because of much lower demands for fuels, and will also lose taxes from loss of car sales.
I have worked with automated equipment, and I have worked with computers all my life. While nothing designed by humans is perfect, a lot of equipment can be made to remove the failures of human-factors, and we do end up with a lot fewer problems and better situations all-around.
Who among humans can say that he/she can do things more precisely and faster than a robot or a computer? If automated vehicles remove just 1% of accidents from our roads, our lives will have been improved tremendously. But, the promise is for removal of 100% or human failure from our roads; I’m willing to accept just 50% improvement in lowering in the number of accidents and deaths.
You might end up beaten, or even dead, but, the perpetrators may end up not going through with their attacks if they know that everything is being recorded and that they will eventually end up arrested or in prison. There is a deterrent effect with being videotapes, as witnessed by cameras in shops and in homes currently. Only the those most intent on committing crimes at any cost, will carry out their evil deeds.
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