Posted on 03/18/2018 9:20:46 AM PDT by billorites
One of the biggest advantages Conor Lamb had in his victory last week in the special election for Western Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District was that his campaign manager lived in his district.
Abby Nassif Murphy did not have an office at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; she did not hold daily meetings with fellow Democrats in the Beltway who, on average, are fairly progressive both culturally and politically. She understood the heartbeat of the district not because of polls and data, but because she spends the bulk of her time carting her sons to and from their activities.
Untethered from the pressures of Washington consultants, agenda items, and resistance talking points, she was able to respond to what she saw the community wanted.
This was no cookie-cutter operation. The ads were fresh, the message was safe, and there was no evidence of any Beltway residue on anything they did.
It was the exact opposite of what the Republicans did. Republican nominee Rick Saccone's ads were flat, seeming leftovers from the Obama era. The message was negative, committing the cardinal sin of not giving voters a reason to show up for either the candidate or the brand.
Last December, Brad Todd, co-author of our upcoming book, "The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics," wrote for The Federalist that the only thing that will keep the Republican Party a healthy party was to get it the hell out of D.C. and set up headquarters somewhere in Ohio so that they knew what their voters really wanted — not what they want them to want.
Three months later, his warnings to his party came to fruition. They lost, in part, because they didn’t understand who their voters are: a coalition of populists that exists outside of the six counties that surround the Beltway.
He’s right. I live here in the 18th Congressional District; when I visit D.C., I am always proud of the history and stature of its purpose. But once I pass Hagerstown, Md., on I-70, I know there is a difference in attitudes towards culture, religion, education, and politics between Western Pennsylvania and the Beltway region.
It is not that one is superior than the other. It is that they are different from each other. If you are running ads or crafting messages to win over voters, you’d be better served to understand who they are, rather than demand that they be what you need them to be.
Abby had that advantage.
The good thing for Republicans is that November 2018 need not be a tsunami if they learn the right lessons from their loss in the Pennsylvania special election. Connection is just one of those lessons.
It wasn't just the fault of D.C. Republicans. Pennsylvania state Republicans also need to take a big part of the blame, nominating someone who could not or would not raise the money needed. Saccone was nominated by party insiders caught up in a spite-filled tribal fight.
Some of the Republicans' biggest donors have become a different kind of spiteful lot. Irked that their establishment candidate did not win, they appear to want to ice their own majorities and withhold money because of their distaste with Trump. Meanwhile, gun-hating Democrats across the country parted with money by the bucketful for a guy who was shooting an AR in his ad. Republican small donors showed no such interest in this race.
Democrat Conor Lamb represented a throwback for the Democrats. He ran against House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, shot an AR-15 in his ads, did not oppose the tariffs, and emphasized he supported middle class tax cuts with just enough of the entitlement bogeyman to seal the deal.
Because Abby lived here, she knew exactly what would motivate her neighbors.
To know your voters, you need to be your voters — the Democrats got that in the 2006 midterms and then spoiled it when they got full power and went on a spending spree. Republicans got that in 2010, but missed it in 2012 when they failed to inspire the rush of voters (including those from the "47 percent") who wanted to support someone against Barack Obama.
Republicans are going to lose seats in 2018 — it is the normal course of nearly every president's first midterm cycle — but they don’t have to lose them all.
And part of that lesson is: Get out of D.C. well before the November shootout, remind their donors what it was like to be the party out of power, nominate good candidates, which allows the national Republicans to return to their supportive role, and set up headquarters somewhere in Cleveland.
He will still vote the straight party line.
Maybe not right away. Conor ran to the right to get elected in a right-leaning district. In a short time he will have to run again, in the same district. I think he'll keep up the "conservative" façade and the Dems will let him.
Should he win in November then we'll see what he's really like.
This election isn’t meaningless, but that district will not exist after November because of redistricting. Selena is spot on, imho.
IMO that is every freaking person, one party or the other, with select exclusion, in Washington.
Every seat is challenged for this reason. As it should be.
The electorate is engaged. We will see if it is just hatred against Trump, or if they like the results thus far.
And yep, with the caveat that the Dems will cheat lie and steal in any manner possible any election ever.
It won’t be the same district. All of PA is getting a re-drawn map. I do agree he’ll get to keep his camouflage through the election.
This piece is correct. Some additional points:
1. In districts that Trump carried like this one, make the race about impeachment. Saccone never said a thing about it. My impression is he was running the race the GOPe consultants told him to run. The GOPe consultants are telling candidates to run away from Trump. Anyone who follows their advice in districts Trump carried is an idiot. Even in districts Trump lost but were competitive they should run against impeachment. I sense the squishy moderates don’t favor it. Even the Pittsburgh Post Gazette endorsed Saccone because of the Democrats’ impeachment plans, yet Saccone said diddly about it.
2. Republicans should not talk about tax cuts as the reason to vote for them. I think Saccone did that. The consultants probably told him to do it. Even if voters like them, they are in the past - a done deal. A candidate who talks about the past is a loser. However they should be prepared to vigorously defend them if the Democrat starts throwing around lies, with actual numbers showing typical tax cuts for a household with a typical middle class income etc. while attacking the Dems over Pelosi’s “crumbs” statement etc.
3. Likewise they shouldn’t talk about the strong economy as a main talking point although it’s worth mentioning. Talk about impeachment, illegal aliens, the Democrats’ DACA obsession and gun rights in districts like this one. Even if the Democrat claims to be pro-gun, talk about how the Democrats want to shoot down Trump’s pro-2nd amendment judges, Pelosi and Schumer’s opposition to gun rights etc.
4. Don’t get on the defensive about Russia. Echo Trump’s position that Mueller’s investigation is a witch hunt and a distraction from the nation’s business. Talk about what’s been uncovered about FISA. Call Schiff a liar etc.
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