Posted on 04/04/2018 12:10:10 PM PDT by ethom
American Research Group found Gov. John Kasich of Ohio trailing Trump in a two-way race, 42% to 48%, among likely Republican primary voters, with 9% undecided. Trump leads another possible rival, Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, 49% to 33%, with 18% undecided.
The results come ahead of Kasich’s third visit to the nation’s first primary state since ending his 2016 bid for president. He will speak Tuesday evening at New England College in Henniker. Flake, who is retiring from the Senate this year, made a trip to the state last month…
The more anti-Trump challengers in New Hampshire, the easier the path for Trump. In a hypothetical primary where Flake and Kasich both run, Trumps leads the three-way field with 51%, followed by Kasich at 34%, and Flake at 4%, with 11% undecided.
Look again at that last number. In a three-way race with Trump running as a populist and Kasich running as a centrist, leaving Flake the entirety of New Hampshire conservatives and libertarians as his natural base, Flake manages … four percent. New Hampshire is “quirky,” I realize, but that feels like a useful snapshot of the state of the conservative movement circa 2018.
The pollster in this case, ARG, did extremely well in calling the New Hampshire primary two years ago. Their final poll had the top two as Trump 33, Kasich 17. Actual results: Trump 35, Kasich 16. They know what they’re doing! If they say it’s Trump 48, Kasich 42 right now, that’s what it must be.
Perhaps. But here’s something from NYT data guru Nate Cohn written in January 2016, about three weeks before New Hampshire’s primary:
The American Research Group has an unusually lengthy record of high-profile misfires, including for almost all of the 2008 Democratic primaries and in the 2012 general election.
Its surveys often show a pronounced “house effect,” in which the results are consistently biased toward the same candidate (like Hillary Clinton in 2007 and 2008). So far this year, it has consistently shown Mr. Kasich doing better than he has been in other polls — which raises the possibility that the most recent A.R.G. poll might be an outlier on top of a tendency to lean toward Mr. Kasich more generally.
“House effect,” you say? Well, as noted, there was no house effect in ARG’s New Hampshire primary survey. They nailed Kasich’s share of the vote almost perfectly. In other pre-primary polls later that spring, however, ARG did indeed evince a strongly pro-Kasich house effect. Their final poll before the South Carolina primary had him at 14 percent; he finished with just 7.6. In Wisconsin they saw him taking 23 percent of the vote; he ended up with 14.1. Days before the Michigan primary they predicted a momentous upset, with Kasich nudging past Trump for a narrow victory, 33/31. In reality he finished third with 24.3 percent, half a point behind Ted Cruz for second. That’s a “house effect” for you.
Oh, almost forgot: ARG also polled New Hampshire last August, trying to gauge Kasich’s strength against now-President Trump in a 2020 primary. They saw a 52/40 lead — for Kasich. The new poll showing Trump ahead 48/42 represents a net 18-point swing *in Trump’s favor* among Republicans in the past seven months. That should be the headline, that even GOPers in states that are lukewarm to Trump have gotten more comfortable with him over the past half-year.
I think the two polls are fair evidence, though, that Kasich could poll enough of the vote in certain states in 2020 to embarrass Trump in a primary even if he didn’t win. And he probably wouldn’t win any (except maybe Ohio): Some Republican voters who are on the fence would end up tilting towards Trump if only to minimize the humiliation to a sitting president who they know would inevitably win the nomination and end up leading them into battle in the fall. What if Trump won 70/30, though? 60/40? It’s not nuts to think Kasich might pull a third of the party as a protest vote, especially if the economy slows down in the next two years. But that also assumes he’d choose to run in the primary as a Republican instead of skipping it and running in the general election as an independent. That seems like a smarter play to me. And if he does, he could end up hurting Trump badly by pulling just enough votes from the right in Rust Belt states to turn Trump’s razor-thin margins of victory in places like Michigan last time into margins of defeat.
More fake news polls.
The same polls that told us Trump could never win the primaries, that Hellary had a 99%chance of victory.
You expect us to believe a flatulent cuckold could seriously threaten President Trump?
I don’t believe a word of it.
No one in their right mind would vote for that slobbering, demented idiot.
ARG also polled New Hampshire last August, trying to gauge Kasich’s strength against now-President Trump in a 2020 primary. The new poll showing Trump ahead represents a net 18-point swing ****in Trump’s favor**** among Republicans in the past seven months. That should be the headline, that even GOPers in states that are lukewarm to Trump have gotten more comfortable with him over the past half-year.
The thought that even a handful might vote for Kasich is depressing.
What kind of idiots do they have in New Hampshire.
Kasuck should poll 1% among the thinking population.
Kasich cant even win where he thinks his support may be the highest! Another reason for him to keep selling books and stay out of the race...
John Kasich has been a huge disappointment to me. Back in the early 1990s, he was part of the Republican Revolution leadership team that pushed for a balanced budget based on spending cuts, enacted Welfare Reform and pushed through a number of other conservative bills. It was the last time we had what might remotely be called a conservative Congress. Then, at some point in the 2000s, he flipped into one of the Beltway Uniparty’s favorite Republicans. He wanted to expand Medicare, he said that Jesus would want Obamacare, and he attacked any Republican who wanted to do anything remotely conservative. I never understood what happened.
B.S.!!!
He sold his soul to the Cheap Labor Express.
The worst kind...Massachusetts transplants.
exactly Kasich is a liberal republican now, there is no way he can win anything. All he is doing now is using the ‘buzz’ to push books and travel in the northeast! (where he wont get shouted down as much I guess)
Someone's got pictures...
“John Kasich has been a huge disappointment to me. “
That is exactly how I describe him. Kasich is a capable administrator. Somewhere along the way, Kasich’s lust for higher office caused him to become completely untethered.
Just Ohio.
Kasich will do well in any state with open primaries. He could get a lot of Democrats to vote for him, but that isn’t likely to happen if the Democrats have a hotly contested primary battle in 2020.
We still have that many #NeverTRUMPers??!! I thought TRUMP would be in the 90%+ range!!!
All americans need to see is Kasich eating a meal.
good point, you never know in an open primary how many democrats would switch sides to vote for him and muck up the process.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.