“The Israeli retaliation would be devastating and humiliating for Iran. The nuclear facilities would be destroyed, the Iranian air force and Revolutionary guards would be targeted and suffer greatly. The mullah regime might actually fall. Very much doubt Iran will launch an attack.”
In the last few weeks, Israel flew its F-35’s into Iran.
“That’s true only if Israel uses nukes”
Israel can wreck considerable damage on Iran with targeted attacks. Of course, they do not have the ability to cripple them without nukes.
But they can take out communications, water, electric and some strategic IRG facilities, maybe leaders.
The only thing Iran can do about it is to launch inaccurate missiles back at Israel. And if they DARE top one with chemicals or biologicals, they will then be promptly nuked.
Israel may wish to provoke them to WMD. And they can do so by shaming them to the people of Iran. They can do this by carrying out these attacks over weeks and months.
Israel could launch several dozen cruise missiles loaded with cluster munitions against Iran’s hghly concentrated oil refining complexes, and cripple them. They import half of their gasoline, and destroying a good part of the other half could result in revolution. Already their population has no confidence in their banking system, this could push them over the edge.
Besides, Israel has vastly more capabilities than it did 37 years ago... especially if they can refuel and/or rearm in Saudi Arabia. Non nukes needed.
Saudi Arabia would let them use their airspace, and likely refueling too. They hate Iran.